I don't want to be this guy but this was quiet obvious to happen and people who repeatedly said "no they will leave after the exercises, it's just exercises!" should honestly ask themselves, how could i NOT see this coming?
https://twitter.com/MarQs__/status/1495339662583472135?s=20&t=eFOG3DUR_mT_dk7QC0Pmcg
Talks between Macron and Putin on #Ukraine begin: French presidency - AFP
"Russian officials expect an offensive from Ukraine tonight
“The offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine should be intensified on the night of February 21 on the Donetsk and Luhansk sectors”
- Viktor Vodolatsky"
“The offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine should be intensified on the night of February 21 on the Donetsk and Luhansk sectors”
- Viktor Vodolatsky"
https://twitter.com/CasusBellii/status/1495346453291712512?s=20&t=gTBnkBr74n-o9xEpZGlv1g
Equipment on the move in #Donetsk this morning
Again tons of videos like that today from Belgorod region. Russian convoys, manned, packed with equipment, winter camo and the mystical "Z" marking.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs strongly recommends that Romanian citizens avoid any travel to #Ukraine and to consider leaving the territory of this state as soon as possible
g4media.ro/mae-recomanda-…
g4media.ro/mae-recomanda-…
Russian convoy waiting on a side road near Valuyki, ~25km from the border with #Ukraine
Kremlin says situation on the line of contact in Donbas has been strained to the maximum, any minor provocation can lead to irreparable consequences - TASS
Belarusian troops on the move near Mazyr, Gomel region, #Belarus today
Large Russian Army convoy in Volokonovka today, ~25km from the border with #Ukraine
Heavy outgoing artillery fire near Stakhanov
Zlynka, Bryansk region
Multiple video from Zlynka, Bryansk region yesterday and today showing equipment on the move off the major roads. It's ~7km from #Belarus, ~35km from #Ukraine. Don't fully understand these movements there. 
Grass on fire near #Donetsk, likely due to shelling
Relatively quiet right now. Will have a little nap now. See you later. 👋🏻
#US has intelligence that Russian troops have received orders to proceed with an invasion of #Ukraine - CBS
Kursk region, #Russia
Heavy shelling in Krymske, #Luhansk region
#US, #NATO must respond on Russia’s security guarantees demands substantively - Putin during a telephone conversation with Macron
Russian and French Foreign Ministers will have a telephone conversation on Monday - Russian Foreign Ministry
Macron, Putin have spoken in favor of ceasing fire in eastern #Ukraine - Elysee Palace
Macron, Putin have agreed that it is necessary to invigorate diplomatic efforts within the Normandy format to find political solutions to the conflict in Donbas - Kremlin press
Putin stressed that "#Kyiv is only simulating the negotiating process and keeps on refusing to implement the Minsk accords and agreements reached in the Normandy format" - TASS
I simply tweeted on this diplomatic stuff between Macron and Putin for the sake of completeness. It's the usual Kremlin talk. Zero reason to believe anything has changed. Watch the ground.
Meanwhile..
https://twitter.com/MrFrantarelli/status/1495433737160564736?s=20&t=7ix5Y4hJwUmOnRObvqV6zA
The Belarusian Defence Minister this morning also said "We don't want war. But they [the West] don't want to listen to us. That’s why we [Belarus and Russia] have created a group of forces that will fight back if necessary"
via @TadeuszGiczan
via @TadeuszGiczan
Shelling is audible in #Luhansk
Belgorod region, #Russia
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