Samuel Charap Profile picture
Feb 21 31 tweets 2 min read
Some thoughts on the ongoing show/RF security council meeting: Shoigu now going off on the potential for Ukraine developing a nuclear weapons capability.
Now claiming Ukraine plans to retake the ORDLO by force.
Medvedev now being rolled out to denounce Kyiv's willingness to implement Minsk.
Medvedev: "we are facing the dilemma" about whether to recognize DNR/LNR. "I remember 2008 well" referring to Ab/SO recognition...
Medvedev: we know what the consequences of these decisions might be... it will be difficult, but we can get through it.
Medvedev: the west will come back to us after a while and ask to restore relations.
Medvedev: there are 800k Russian citizens living in ORDLO
medvedev: our only choice is to recognize these territories. [ugh]
Putin: "I didn't ask any of you in advance about this" [claiming this meeting isn't pre-scripted...]
Matvienko rambling now... cringe-worthy stuff. "what did Russia ever do to Ukraine?"
Patrushev starting now.... "all the others will do what the US says" it only makes sense to talk to the US
Patrushev: they want to destroy Russia.
Patrushev: the US manufactured Maidan.
Patrushev: we should support the Duma's resolution on recognition.
Patrushev: we should accept Biden's summit invitation, in order to tell him that you [the US] caused all the problems in ORDLO, but if you fix it in 3-5 days, we'll be ok with that.
Mishustin really seems out of place
Naryshkin is showing off his gaslighting skills.
Putin to Naryshkin: give me a yes or a no!
Naryshkin: I support incorporating them into Russia.
Putin: we aren't talking about that!!
[maybe this really wasn't scripted. If so, it certainly wasn't scripted well]
[this is like a B-movie version of the usual Putin-runs-a-govt-meeting TV show. really bizarre.]
Lavrov invited back to the mic...
Lavrov running with the genocide talking point
Lavrov: I see no alternative [to recognition]. [quite a departure from MID's position as recently as yesterday]
Shoigu: "yes, we must recognize"
Bortnikov supports recognition to give the people of the Donbas a better future [no comment]
Putin: I heard your opinions. A decision will be taken today...
So: no announcement. Putin, as usual, dragging out the decision.
[colleagues point out that Bastrikin's intervention was cut -- it definitely was a taped show]

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More from @scharap

Feb 22
One thought about what Russia's exit from the Minsk agreements — aka recognition of DNR/LNR — tells us about what is to come. Thread 1/x
Minsk was a mechanism for Russia to cement its influence over Ukraine by returning the Donbas on its terms -- a constitution renegotiated with its proxies and an asymmetric confederal structure with hyper-empowered pro-Russian regions. 2/x
By recognizing the republics' "independence," Moscow has given up on ever getting that mechanism. But the Kremlin has certainly not given up on its objective of cementing its influence over Ukraine. 3/x
Read 5 tweets
Feb 21
Main takeaway from that barnburner of a speech is that Russia now has given itself a pretext to respond to "attacks" on DNR and LNR with no need to conceal its direct military involvement. thread 1/x
Putin not only recognized the DNR/LNR, he also signed "friendship and cooperation" treaties with them, essentially security guarantees. 2/x
whereas before this, Russia didn't have a justification for overt military intervention even under its own laws, now it will. This is an important element of the narrative that was missing. 3/x
Read 5 tweets
Feb 21
Putin's address starting. Thread.
"Ukraine is an inseparable part of our cultural space"
Uh oh, he's going deep into history.
Read 55 tweets
Feb 19
This is an important point. It also underscores the absence of a “playbook” that we’ve heard so much about in recent weeks. In 2014, Moscow only had to twist reality in constructing narratives. This time, they’re just making things up. Thread 1/8
In 2014, there was a revolution led by an armed far-right nationalist vanguard that ousted a democratically elected (though repressive and autocratic) govt dominated by pols from the south and east. 2/8
They actually had a banner of Bandera’s portrait on the Maidan. Really. Clearly there was a *lot* more to the Maidan Rev than that, but those images provided ample material for Russian TV. 3/8
Read 8 tweets
Feb 4
Since everyone is looking for military and informational signs of Russia’s seriousness (or not) about launching an invasion, it might make sense to also think about signs that the diplomatic track might actually be more than Kabuki theater/time-buying tactic/ point-scoring/ 1/9
/alliance management opportunity/letter-writing campaign/pretext creation/etc. — something that might actually preclude the invasion. Here are some things to look for 2/9
1) Presidential-level engagement. There’s only one person in Russia who can call off the mil op. And it isn’t Lavrov. 3/9
Read 9 tweets
Jan 29
You might have noticed Lavrov is fixated on the “indivisibility of security” principle these days. As Tim Colton and I note in our book, the debate over principles of “freedom to choose” and “indivisibility of security” dates to the 1990s. A thread.
amazon.com/dp/1138633089/…
BLUF: since the 1990s, both sides cherry-picked their respective preferred principle to justify their respective preferred policies. [quotes below are from the book]
“Yeltsin grounded his early receptivity to talking about Russia-in-NATO in indivisibility ... Russia was comfortable inside a revised security framework only so long as its prerogatives and stature were taken into account, with all that connoted for the US having to share ...
Read 10 tweets

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