Since everyone is looking for military and informational signs of Russia’s seriousness (or not) about launching an invasion, it might make sense to also think about signs that the diplomatic track might actually be more than Kabuki theater/time-buying tactic/ point-scoring/ 1/9
/alliance management opportunity/letter-writing campaign/pretext creation/etc. — something that might actually preclude the invasion. Here are some things to look for 2/9
1) Presidential-level engagement. There’s only one person in Russia who can call off the mil op. And it isn’t Lavrov. 3/9
2) US/Allies focus exclusively on Russian withdrawal as their only ask. We can talk about all the other bad stuff Russia has done AFTER the forces on Ukraine’s border have returned to garrison. 4/9
3) Some attempt at addressing the Ukraine/NATO question. Clearly Russia won’t get all of what it’s asking for, but there are nuanced approaches that do not cross Western red lines. See on.ft.com/3HVmz24 for one idea 5/9
4) Actual negotiations. As in: negotiators in a room, negotiating. Not sending letters, holding press conferences, repeating talking points, etc. 6/9
5) Alternatively, both sides’ willingness to make some costly signals without negotiation. 7/9
6) some sign that the diplomacy is having an impact on the military dynamics on the ground (unlike now, when they seem to exist on different planes) 8/9
That’s all I got. Open to others’ ideas. END 9/9
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