I'll leave the causal analysis for another moment, but the outcome is clear enough:
(1) Recognition of DPR/LPR;
(2) Formal insertion of Russian troops;
(3) Likely attempt to expand borders.
(1) Recognition of DPR/LPR;
(2) Formal insertion of Russian troops;
(3) Likely attempt to expand borders.
Immediate unanswered questions:
(1) How far will they push beyond the current line of control?
(2) Will Ukraine fight along the current LoC, or at some distance from it?
(3) Will Biden push the full package of sanctions immediately?
(1) How far will they push beyond the current line of control?
(2) Will Ukraine fight along the current LoC, or at some distance from it?
(3) Will Biden push the full package of sanctions immediately?
While nationalists and communists are pushing for regime change in Kyiv, the establishment consensus seems to be for an expanded DPR/LPR -- something like at the borders of the Donetsk & Luhansk oblasts.
The best-case scenario -- from a human life standpoint -- is that it all ends at the current line of control: if Russian troops go in and Ukrainian troops fortify but don't try to push the LoC forward.
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