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laurence norman

@laurnorman

Feb 21

My understanding of the actual EU sanctions situation re #Russia is that consultations are going on at the top level of the EU institutions and there will be consultations with Washington and London on whether tonight should be trigger point for sanctions.

My understanding is the key question focuses on whether recognition alone would trigger a subset of sanctions, rather than the whole package.

There you go: clearly not the whole sanctions package...EU VDL/Michel: "The Union will react with sanctions against those involved in this illegal act."

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laurence norman

@laurnorman

Feb 20

@JosepBorrellF

At #MSC, @JosepBorrellF starts by zooming out from #Ukraine and talks about recent Russia/China agreement as an "act of defiance" against international order, seeking to undermine liberal democratic model & freeze out external forces from what they call "common adjacent region."

Under the Russia, China vision: states are sovereign, not the people. Says west must strive for its democratic model in Africa, LatAm, SEAsia -- the "swing" regions. "It's Russia and China the ones who want to go back to the 19th century" with the battle of empires.

@JosepBorrellF

Striking to hear @JosepBorrellF thesis of Russia, China dual attack on international system, minutes after @eucopresident pushes for engagement with China and lobbying again for Europe's stalled CAI investment pact with Beijing. -3-

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laurence norman

@laurnorman

Feb 18

Senior EU diplomat: #IranTalks "I expect an agreement very soon. Ideally yes, I expect an agreement in the coming week or ***coming two weeks or so***." -1-

"Most of the issues are already agreed. But as a principle in this kind of negotiations, nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. So we still have...some questions, some of them rather political and difficult to agree." -2-

"Over the last 2 weeks, delegations have shown a lot of political will. It's clear that they want a compromise. It's clear that all delegations around the table -and that which is not around the table but it's around the corner, the United States - it also wants an agreement."-3-

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laurence norman

@laurnorman

Feb 3

JUST RAN: The Biden administration expects a restored nuclear deal would leave Iran capable of amassing enough nuclear fuel for a bomb in significantly less than a year, U.S. officials familiar with the matter said. wsj.com/articles/u-s-s…

Biden administration officials discussed Break-out time scenarios last fall and concluded that re-creating the 12 month breakout time that underpinned the 2015 deal was unrealistic. Concluded it would be “significantly lower.” -2-

Lower breakout time estimates (& yes, these will always be estimates), will raise new questions about strength of a restored deal and the US aim for a future longer, stronger deal. Some in U.S., Israel voiced worries that a restored deal would give Iran a more for less deal. -3-

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laurence norman

@laurnorman

Feb 2

https://twitter.com/julienbahloul/status/1488757900487139328

This issue is not complicated. "In 1935, the Nuremberg laws, which among other things outlawed marriages between Jews and other Germans, were passed. These were then amended to include black people and Roma in the same category as Jews." bbc.com/news/world-afr… -1-

https://twitter.com/julienbahloul/status/1488757900487139328

"But a fear of racial mixing persisted and in 1937 the mixed-race children from the Rhineland were targeted for forced sterilisation...Though their experiences differed, all black Germans were subjected to persecution under Nazi rule."

Alternative source. encyclopedia.ushmm.org/content/en/art… "Did the Nuremberg Laws apply to other groups? Yes. While initially focused on Jews, the Nazi government clarified that the Nuremberg Laws also applied to Roma View This Term in the Glossary (also called Gypsies), Black people," -3-

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laurence norman

@laurnorman

Oct 29, 2021

Some thoughts on #IranTalks and the issue of guarantees. I've had a few days to speak to western sources to get their take on the role disagreement over guarantees that the U.S. not again withdraw from JCPOA played in stalling Vienna talks.-1-

First, an acknowledgement that different sources always have slightly different takes and perceptions and the caveat that since the Iranians wouldn't speak to the U.S. directly, some misunderstandings of each other's positions and expectations was inevitable. -2-

@tparsi

Second, my understanding is that the central factual claim made by @tparsi -- that Iran lowered its demand from insisting on a permanent guarantee that the U.S. not exit the JCPOA to insisting on a legal guarantee that the Biden administration not exit the deal -- is correct. -3-

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