If we’re going to sanction Russia as harshly as we keep hearing, we’ll need Chinese cooperation.
Chinese foot-dragging is one of the biggest problems in N Korea sanctions enforcement.
The incentives - strategic, ideological, economic for CN to do same on Russia will be huge
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Chinese foot-dragging is one of the biggest problems in N Korea sanctions enforcement.
The incentives - strategic, ideological, economic for CN to do same on Russia will be huge
1
We also won’t get multilateral (UN) sanctions. Russia itself will veto that.
But for democratic countries’ Russia sanctions to bite, a Chinese back door will be a real problem.
CN probably won’t do much, so we need to be honest about how far sanctions, however harsh, can go
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But for democratic countries’ Russia sanctions to bite, a Chinese back door will be a real problem.
CN probably won’t do much, so we need to be honest about how far sanctions, however harsh, can go
2
We also need to grasp the limits of #sanctions. They won't push #Russia out of Ukraine, just as they aren't forcing N Korea stop building nukes.
Instead, their goal is to prevent the problem from becoming even worse by imposing costs. That is, NK won't stop building nukes,
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Instead, their goal is to prevent the problem from becoming even worse by imposing costs. That is, NK won't stop building nukes,
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but we can slow them down & make it harder for them to build more. In the #UkraineCrisis, that means punishing Russia economically to make attacking its neighbors costlier.
In time, these economic costs encourage, ideally, insiders to argue for rapprochement with the world.
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In time, these economic costs encourage, ideally, insiders to argue for rapprochement with the world.
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But even if they don't, we often must leave the sanctions in place for the long-term strategic purpose of blunting the target's economic growth & access to external weapons & tech, bc we understand the target as an enemy. So if we weren't sanctioning NK, its larger economy wd
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support an even larger military and WMD program.
Russia looks like it will be viewed the same way - a semi-permanent threat which must be sanctioned indefinitely, if only to keep it from getting stronger and, consequently, our conflict with it getting worse.
Finally, we must
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Russia looks like it will be viewed the same way - a semi-permanent threat which must be sanctioned indefinitely, if only to keep it from getting stronger and, consequently, our conflict with it getting worse.
Finally, we must
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be ready for the wave of criticism blaming every humanitarian issue in post-sanctioned Russia on us. Every hospital which might have better equipment for but import restrictions will be profiled on @RT_com.
This is not true, of course. Domestic governments determine budgets,
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This is not true, of course. Domestic governments determine budgets,
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allocations, and opportunity costs, and they could change policy to relieve sanctions.
But they often don't, frequently bc elites in autocracies insulate themselves from sanctions penalties through international evasion, and by pushing the burden of sanctions onto the general
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But they often don't, frequently bc elites in autocracies insulate themselves from sanctions penalties through international evasion, and by pushing the burden of sanctions onto the general
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population by re-ordering domestic allocation around themselves (i.e., by squeezing the population so that they themselves don't suffer).
So we need to be ready for a long-haul, with few obvious moments of success and regular humanitarian critique, if we go this route.
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So we need to be ready for a long-haul, with few obvious moments of success and regular humanitarian critique, if we go this route.
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Addendum:
Initial guess on what the first-wave sanctions will look like - bilateral sanctions in parallel across the democratic world - since UN sanctions are impossible bc of Russia's UNSC veto - probably starting with banks and elite persons.
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Initial guess on what the first-wave sanctions will look like - bilateral sanctions in parallel across the democratic world - since UN sanctions are impossible bc of Russia's UNSC veto - probably starting with banks and elite persons.
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https://twitter.com/Robert_E_Kelly/status/1496795840882483201?s=20&t=YWiBDpLlqVH2L4UxnHNBhw
So here are those Chinese incentives to not cooperate with Western sanctions on Russia, similar to why CN violates N Korea sanctions.
I should have put this high up in the original thread. Sorry.
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I should have put this high up in the original thread. Sorry.
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https://twitter.com/Robert_E_Kelly/status/1496835148587081729
Good write-up illustrating why Chinese cooperation will be a core issue if sanctions is our primary response.
CN may buy up Russian exports, super-cheap, to keep it afloat, just, to play spoiler to the West.
In fact, that's what I expect it to do.
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CN may buy up Russian exports, super-cheap, to keep it afloat, just, to play spoiler to the West.
In fact, that's what I expect it to do.
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https://twitter.com/TheresaAFallon/status/1496799525192798217
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