Thread by @WilliamYang120

While #Russia launches military attacks on #Ukraine, #China remains relatively low-key with its official position on the crisis. I talked to @wentisung, @danil_bochkov_ and @zsuzsettte about what might be behind #Beijing's recent comments: dw.com/en/how-is-chin…

"China's more measured response suggests Beijing's balancing in light of its relations with the US and Russia. Beijing is aware that seeing a conflict erupt is not in its interest and Moscow is pushing China to face some difficult decisions.

The balancing act from China is to protect its own interests," said @zsuzsettte.

"Russia's decision [to recognize the independence of Ukraine separatist regions] should have come as a surprise to China since Beijing just several days ago advocated for the resolution of the crisis via the Minsk process,...

... which was effectively derailed yesterday," said @danil_bochkov_.

@wentisung said that China also doesn't want to see Russia launching major offenses into Ukraine, as the move could create geopolitical uncertainties that Beijing wants to avoid, as China is preparing to reassert itself on the global stage...

... amid the 20th National Party Congress later this year.

"2022 is the year of China's power transition. On top of that, since China and Russia still view each other as potential security concerns, a significantly stronger Russia is not something that China really wants to see," he added.

Sung said that China would likely remain comfortable with a limited Russian excursion into separatist-held areas in Ukraine, along the lines of the Kremlin's current claims that Moscow's troops are "peacekeepers."

"If Russia goes full steam ahead, China will have more incentives to try to distance itself from Russia, so Beijing won't be seen as 'being in this together' with a major violator of international norms," he added.

Although the situation between Taiwan and Ukraine is far from identical, experts have said China could gain some insights on the Western response to Moscow's escalation in Ukraine and extrapolate it onto their agenda with Taiwan.

"Beijing could be gathering a lot of details now on how the West is reacting and coordinating its steps among allies. China can compile quite an effective guidebook for any future escalations with the West, whether they are Taiwan-related or inspired by any other issue."

Sung said that China will observe how the Ukraine-Russia crisis tests Western unity.

"The escalation of the Ukraine crisis shows that European countries and the US have different priorities in terms of their geopolitical concerns," Sung said.

"Whether Ukraine will become a test that exposes the fault lines within major Western countries and whether that will lead to a subsequent decrease of cohesion of the Western bloc is something that China will be observing closely."