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David Coletto Profile picture
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Feb 24 • 10 tweets • 6 min read
The latest @abacusdataca poll comes about 2 weeks after our previous one. Here's what we found:

1. LPC and CPC are deadlocked at 31%. NDP at 20%

More here: abacusdata.ca/canadian-polit… Image
2. 3-way race in BC, LPC slightly ahead in ON, and BQ ahead by 8 in Quebec. CPC is well ahead in the Prairies.

More here: abacusdata.ca/canadian-polit… Image
3. Mood of the country has stabilized but is still lower than at any point since Spring 2021. All this was done before today's events in Ukraine.

More here: abacusdata.ca/canadian-polit… Image
4. The federal government's approval rating is largely unchanged from earlier this month. 39% approve vs. 46% disapprove but the disapproval number is still at more than 12 month high.

More here: abacusdata.ca/canadian-polit… ImageImage
5. Clear majority support invoking the Emergencies Act - 57% vs. 30%.

Support by party voters:
LPC 79%
CPC 40%
NDP 63%
BQ 59%

More here: abacusdata.ca/canadian-polit… Image
6. PM Trudeau's favourables steady but still higher than at any point since the pandemic started. Have to go back to the SNC Lavalin scandal to see his negatives this high.

More here: abacusdata.ca/canadian-polit… Image
7. CPC Leader Candice Bergen has seen a change in her favorables. Negatives up 4, positives up 3. Convoy/occupation put her in the spotlight.

More here: abacusdata.ca/canadian-polit… Image
8. NDP Leader Singh's positives continue to drop slowly. Under 40% for the first time since August 2021. Negatives up slightly over the past few weeks.

More here: abacusdata.ca/canadian-polit… Image
All in all, the events have the past few weeks have hurt impressions of the government and PM but have also done little to improve the standing of the main opposition parties.

Accessible voter pools for LPC, NDP, and CPC are fairly consistent with what we found in November. Image
You can get all the details here: abacusdata.ca/canadian-polit…

Survey was done online with 5,200 Canadian adults from Feb 17 to 22, 2022.

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More from @DavidColetto

David Coletto Profile picture
Feb 26
I've been thinking a lot about the occupation/protests in Ottawa and have been inspired by work being done by colleagues and others to understand the dynamics of public opinion and the impact on political behaviour.

#FreedomConvoy2022 #cdnpoli #society #mrx #polling #canada
And I think our political future will depend upon having a really good understanding of the opinion landscape.

This is especially true for those who lead orgs in business, media, and government. As I'll show you, you don't see the world in the same way as everyone else.
In preparing for a briefing for a client on tax fairness, affordability, and public policy in Canada, I went back to a survey we did for @PIPSC_IPFPC and @broadbent in July 2021.

A lot of the same concerns I see today in polling existed then...
Read 30 tweets
David Coletto Profile picture
Jun 15, 2021
Soon after the discovery of the remains of 215 children at the Kamloops residential school site, we conducted a national survey of 3,000 Canadians with @CRRF and @AFN_Updates.

The results indicate that this event might be a tipping point.

THREAD

crrf-fcrr.ca/en/news-a-even…
Not only did almost all Canadians hear about it, but it had most people thinking about residential schools and how Indigenous people have been treated in Canada.
How did Canadians react to the discovery? 24% weren't surprised, but for the rest of the country, it was worse than they thought. 1 in 3 said they were "shocked" by the news.
Read 10 tweets
David Coletto Profile picture
Jul 6, 2020
THREAD on our new polling on mask-wearing.

A third of Canadians always wear a mask when they enter a public place like a retail outlet and a quarter never do.

Full results: abacusdata.ca/masks-polling-…
Men are significantly less likely to wear masks compared to women. Mask wearing is more common among the youngest and older adults, and resistance to wearing masks is highest among those in the 45-59 age group.
Mask wearing is most common in Ontario and least common in Saskatchewan, Manitoba and Atlantic Canada. 40% of rural-dwelling Canadians never wear a mask.
Read 11 tweets
David Coletto Profile picture
Jun 18, 2020
A few thoughts on the new @worldvisionca/@abacusdataca poll for #WorldRefugeeDay

Most Canadians have thought about how the pandemic is impacting people living in poor countries and it impacts on inequality.

More here: abacusdata.ca/world-vision-r… 1/
2/ Compared with January 2020, those extremely/very concerned about the spread of infectious diseases as a global issue as increased by 13-points to 68% overall. It is now the TOP global issue of concern for Canadians.

More here: abacusdata.ca/world-vision-r…
3/ Canadians overwhelmingly recognize that COVID puts those living in refugee or displaced persons camps are at far greater risk than Canadians.

More here: abacusdata.ca/world-vision-r…
Read 5 tweets
David Coletto Profile picture
May 20, 2019
Thread: Spending #VictoriaDay afternoon playing with some data. Looking at different ways to describe the electorate in Canada. Here's where I've landed so far using statistical clustering. Would appreciate feedback on the description/names. #cdnpoli #elxn43 #Election2019
Data is from a national survey of 2,500 Canadians, May 7 to 13, 2019. #cdnpoli
No party can win without building a coalition of these different groups of voters. The Conservatives will look to the conservatives, right populists, and classic liberals for votes. The Liberals will look to the Cosmopolitan left, classic liberals, and green/left populists.
Read 16 tweets

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