Thread by @Colettod

Thread: Spending #VictoriaDay afternoon playing with some data. Looking at different ways to describe the electorate in Canada. Here's where I've landed so far using statistical clustering. Would appreciate feedback on the description/names. #cdnpoli #elxn43 #Election2019

Data is from a national survey of 2,500 Canadians, May 7 to 13, 2019. #cdnpoli

No party can win without building a coalition of these different groups of voters. The Conservatives will look to the conservatives, right populists, and classic liberals for votes. The Liberals will look to the Cosmopolitan left, classic liberals, and green/left populists.

The NDP needs to unite the cosmopolitan left and green/left populists while the Greens start with the green/left populists and then attract the cosmopolitan left. But uniting these groups is not that easy. Look at some of the attitudes that divide these groups.

First, the impression of immigrants - do they strengthen the country or are they a burden? If the Conservatives want some classic liberals, being seen as anti-immigrant is a threat. #cdnpoli #elxn43 #Election2019

Second, will the future economy help or hurt my quality of life? Classic liberals are incredibly optimistic but green/left populists are pessimistic. How do the Liberals bring those two perspectives together? #cdnpoli #elxn43 #Election2019

Third, is climate change a crisis that requires immediate action or something we can't really do anything about? This is an issue that unites conservatives and right populists and liberals, green/left populists, and cosmopolitans. This is why it is becoming a wedge in #cdnpoli.

This one is interesting. Classic liberals and conservatives agree that some inequality in society is good. Right and green/left populists and cosmopolitans don't agree. Progressives can bring right populists into the fold if there's a focus on inequality. #cdnpoli #elxn43

Another example from the previous point. Look at that gap between right populists and conservatives. #cdnpoli #elxn43

Finally, given the increased attention on abortion rights, here's how the segments break out on this question. Few Canadians (17%) think abortion should be against the law. #cdnpoli #elxn43

Given these opinions, not surprising that the top issues that would drive their vote different to some extent. Although concern the cost of living unites all groups. #cdnpoli #elxn43

Here's party identification across the five segments. Correlation isn't as high as you'd think. Green/left populists are the least partisan. #cdnpoli #elxn43

Here's current federal vote by voter segment. #cdnpoli

Upshot: How the 2019 election ends up will depend on which issue defines the ballot. For example, climate change: 58% think its a crisis requiring action. But if the CPC can unite and mobilize conservatives and right populists (who are less concerned), they can win a majority.

Upshot: If the election ends up being about dealing with the cost of living, the outcome is far less predictable. The CPC, NDP, and Liberals can build a coalition that could win. #cdnpoli #elxn43

Upside: One wildcard - Health care. Besides pharmacare, it isn't being discussed but it's an issue that unites cosmopolitans, classic liberals, green/left populists, and right populists. #cdnpoli #elxn43