Thread by @DanielAlpert

UKRAINE: WHERE IS RUSSIA'S ACHILLES HEEL?
A Thread
1/15
In most every global conflict - offensive or defensive, military or economic - western governments seek to game out the likely reactions of adversaries.
We assume the Russians engage, at some level, in a similar exercise.
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2/15
The "game over" for most responsible governments is, of course, global nuclear war. So all actions - military or economic - risking escalation to that point are viewed as potential steps towards the unthinkable.
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3/15
And there is always the risk of the irrational actor who ignores the principles of Mutually Assured Destruction and sets off a cataclysm.
There has been much discussion, of late, on whether Putin is such an actor.
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4/15
Now, it is reasonable to assess not just the potential for global destruction, but of economic havoc rebounding to those nations uniting against an aggressor. But geo-strategic concerns always gain primacy and the latter eventually (often too late) fall by the wayside.
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5/15
Yet grave and costly miscalculations can be, and have been, made along the way in dealing with aggression. The most important is accurately assessing the resources and capabilities of the aggressor.
We in the west saw this vividly when the Cold War came to an end.
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6/15
What we discovered was that the vaunted and boasted military, technological and strategic prowess of the Soviet Union was little more that a Potemkin Village.
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7/15
And that it is likely not that the Soviet leadership was cognizant that it was rattling non-existent sabers. But that everyone up the chain of command was lying to the leadership.
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8/15
The Russian soul is well illustrated by Putin's attempt at restoring the country to its Tsarist/Stalinist past, and in his unwillingness to suffer anything differing from his own narrative. Here is Putin dressing down his own national security advisor
cnn.com/videos/world/2…

9/15
So now the west, in its levying sanctions and taking other actions to end Russia's invasion of Ukraine, must assess Putin's resources .
And there is a real risk of again attributing to Russia greater power than it actually has.
Particularly in cyber-warfare capabilities.
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10/15
Russia has been a huge cyber-disruptor over the past decade - infiltrating both political and commercial systems - often via dark networks of criminals who have the tacit approval/encouragement of the Kremlin. It is realistic for the west to fear retaliation on this front
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11/15
In gaming out these scenarios, however, it is important not to attribute to Russia's decentralized and money-driven cyber-capabilities the same resources the west possesses in its vast arsenal of cyber weapons and controls. Most of them not visible to the other side.
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12/15
Russia has intentionally cultivated an overblown fear of its cyber-disruptive capacity, in true Russian style. That is Russia's Achilles Heel.
And the reason that we should be unstinting in the application of economic and trade sanctions to shut down the Russian nation.
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13/15
Those must go beyond blocking Russian bank access to SWIFT, and extend to any bank doing business with Russia having access to SWIFT, CHIPS, the FedWire or UK CHAPS. To shut off Russia completely from global clearing systems.
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14/15
No country can trade or function without participation on global dollar clearing - over 88% of all global foreign exchange transactions involve the US$. No nation has a "fortress balance sheet" that can avoid this reality for long.
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15/15
In addition the west should turn loose - without fear of retaliation that can't be dealt with and neutralized - cyber-actions to disrupt Russia's internal infrastructure and communications.
We needn't boast about the latter part, either.
Just do it.
#END