Aaron Derfel Profile picture
Feb 24 10 tweets 5 min read
1) In his zeal to start a war and invade Ukraine, Russian president Vladimir Putin has neglected his own people as so-called excess deaths have surged past more than one million during the #COVID crisis. In this thread, I will return to the subject of pandemics and war. Image
2) “Russia, for instance,” notes Nature magazine, “reported more than 300,000 COVID-19 deaths by the end of 2021, but is likely to have exceeded 1 million excess deaths in that time.” Russia has presumably under-counted #COVID deaths in the lead-up to its invasion of Ukraine. Image
3) In 2021, Russia experienced its sharpest population decline since the end of the Soviet Union three decades earlier, according to the Moscow Times. Russia had only one short lockdown during spring 2020 and less than half the population has received two vaccine doses. Image
4) As Putin has prepared for war, Russia is likely in the grip of an #Omicron-driven wave of death, as the chart by Our World in Data suggests. The rate of 5.24 deaths per million population is probably an under-count because of low vaccination and war censoring. See below. Image
5) Presumably, all of Russia’s 150,000 troops attacking Ukraine right now have received the Sputnik V vaccine, seeking to avoid the mortal fate of so many soldiers during the First World War, which coincided with the 1918 flu pandemic.
6) In a Jan. 20 pre-print study funded by the Russian Direct Investment Fund (can anyone say conflict of interest?) Italian researchers found the Sputnik V vaccine was more than twice as effective as the Pfizer-BioNTech dose against #Omicron. Is that really so?
7) As Putin’s War drags on, one can foresee the #Omicron contagion spreading among the desperate citizens and soldiers of Ukraine. Sadly, only 34.3% of Ukraine’s population has been fully vaccinated. Thus, is this invasion also an indirect form of biowarfare? Image
8) COVID deaths have already been climbing in Ukraine, likely as a result of #Omicron and its stealth sub-variant BA.2. Ukraine’s rate of #COVID deaths per million population is now more than three times higher than Canada’s rate. Please review the comparative chart below. Image
9) And as Russian missiles rain down on Ukraine, they will likely damage critical infrastructure, making it all the more difficult to contain the spreading contagion of the #coronavirus. How many more COVID-infected Ukrainians will die as a result of this unprovoked aggression? Image
10) The First World War exacerbated the 1918 pandemic and vice versa. It would be reasonable to expect this will also happen during the largest European land invasion since the Second World War. It might even backfire on Russia, but does Putin even care? End of thread.

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More from @Aaron_Derfel

Feb 27
1) As Russian forces continue their invasion and bomb Ukrainian hospitals – a clear war crime – the nation of 44 million people is also facing a renewed threat in the #pandemic, a calculated form of biowarfare, if you will, on Russian President Vladimir Putin’s part. Image
2) As NBC News reported on Saturday (and as I’ve flagged in two Twitter threads since last week), Ukraine was already facing its largest #COVID spike in cases yet, with a seven-day average of 37,408 on Feb. 10. It has also been struggling with a polio outbreak since last October. Image
3) And now Ukraine’s very hospitals that are intended to treat #COVID and polio patients (not to mention the victims of Russia's invasion) are being bombed on purpose. Dymytro Kuleba, Ukraine’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, condemned this tactic on Thursday as “beyond evil.” Image
Read 9 tweets
Feb 24
1) Montréal’s public health director said Wednesday the city was entering a “transition phase” amid falling #COVID hospitalizations. But 10,500 kilometers away, South Korea's prime minister was appealing for calm amid an unprecedented spike in cases. montrealgazette.com/news/local-new…
2) In just four days, the number of declared #COVID infections in South Korea has soared from 100,000 to more than 171,000 – that nation's highest by far than at any other point in the #pandemic. “There is no reason at all to fear or panic,” Prime Minister Kim Boo-kyum said. Image
3) South Korea has now surpassed the United States in its rate of new weekly #COVID hospitalizations, at a rate of 201.81 per million population compared with the U.S rate of 138.18. This is astonishing given South Korea’s Zero COVID approach in dealing with the #pandemic. Image
Read 11 tweets
Feb 20
1) As COVID hospitalizations trend downward in Québec — dipping by 31 to 1,758 Saturday — everyone is wondering what will happen as the province continues lifting public health protections with the BA.2 sub-variant on the rise. In this thread, I will try to answer that question.
2) First, it’s worth noting the Omicron variant had the hardest impact on hospitalizations in Québec than at any other point in the pandemic. In contrast, although Omicron caused a wave of hospitalizations in South Africa (where it was first detected), past ones there were worse. Image
3) Omicron has also produced the second highest wave of #COVID deaths in Québec. Again in contrast, although Omicron caused a wave of death in South Africa, previous waves there were higher. So what explains the difference between Québec and South Africa? Image
Read 14 tweets
Feb 19
1) South Korea, which has long taken one of the most aggressive approaches in fighting the #COVID19 pandemic, declared a case count on Friday surging past 100,000 — its highest to date by far. In this thread, I will delve into what this means.
2) South Korea is attributing this latest wave of cases to #Omicron. On Friday, Lim Sook-young, an official with the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency, said authorities were also monitoring the Omicron stealth sub-variant, BA.2.
3) South Korea is also recording its highest number of #COVID hospitalizations than at any other point in the #pandemic. The chart below by Our World in Data shows a peak 192 hospitalizations per million population on Feb. 10 and another peak of 193 on Saturday.
Read 16 tweets
Feb 18
1) In its #COVID19 epidemiological report this week, the World Health Organization noted the stealth #Omicron sub-variant BA.2 was “steadily increasing” in its spread, particularly in South Africa and Denmark. In this thread, I will report the latest developments concerning BA.2.
2) The WHO found that BA.2 prevalence soared from 27% in South Africa on Feb. 4 to 86% by Feb. 11. In Denmark, BA.2 prevalence climbed from 20% in the last week of 2021 to 66% by the third week of January. These two countries are now recording rises in #COVID deaths. See below.
3) “Early evidence from limited studies suggest BA.2 is more transmissible as compared with BA.1,” the WHO concludes in its report. “Estimates of growth rates in Denmark indicate that BA.2 is 30% more transmissible than BA.1.”
Read 16 tweets
Feb 18
1) As Russia masses more than 150,000 troops along Ukraine’s borders, it’s worth noting #COVID deaths are rising in both nations, with the #Omicron variant causing the latest viral fatalities. In this thread, I will assess the #pandemic's impact on a potential war and vice versa.
2) First, though, let us review the impact of the 1918 influenza pandemic on World War I. “It might seem like a coincidence that a global pandemic of influenza happens at the same time as the First World War, but in fact they’re related,” says historian Christopher Capozzola.
3) “This is a time when you have tons of people living in close quarters together, particularly those serving in the military,” Capozzola recounts of that period. “You have shortages of food and good housing that mean that people are just not as healthy.” theworldwar.org/learn/pandemic…
Read 11 tweets

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