Aaron Derfel Profile picture
Feb 27 9 tweets 7 min read
1) As Russian forces continue their invasion and bomb Ukrainian hospitals – a clear war crime – the nation of 44 million people is also facing a renewed threat in the #pandemic, a calculated form of biowarfare, if you will, on Russian President Vladimir Putin’s part.
2) As NBC News reported on Saturday (and as I’ve flagged in two Twitter threads since last week), Ukraine was already facing its largest #COVID spike in cases yet, with a seven-day average of 37,408 on Feb. 10. It has also been struggling with a polio outbreak since last October.
3) And now Ukraine’s very hospitals that are intended to treat #COVID and polio patients (not to mention the victims of Russia's invasion) are being bombed on purpose. Dymytro Kuleba, Ukraine’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, condemned this tactic on Thursday as “beyond evil.”
4) It’s not just that Ukraine, like every other nation, was already approaching the third year in the #pandemic. The chart below by CoVariants.org shows that as of Feb. 21, all #COVID cases in Ukraine are now screening for the super contagious Omicron variant of concern.
5) And more recently, these scientists diligently tracking #coronavirus variants worldwide pointed out that half of all the new cases in Ukraine are arising from the #Omicron stealth sub-variant BA.2, known to be at least 30% more contagious than the original variant of concern.
6) Ukraine’s #COVID deaths were already rising before Russia’s invasion. On Feb. 24, the day Russia started firing missiles into Ukraine, the country’s rate of #COVID deaths was nearly four times higher than Canada’s. Please take a look at the chart below by Our World in Data.
7) At the same time, only 35.02% of Ukraine’s adult population has received the standard two vaccine doses to protect against #COVID19. And as the chart by Our World in Data below reveals, only 1.73% of the Ukrainian population has been boosted against the #Omicron variant.
8) These #COVID figures will likely become increasingly unreliable in the weeks to follow as Ukraine understandably throws all its resources into defending itself against Putin’s unprovoked aggression. Thus, Ukrainian authorities risk growing blind to the worsening contagion.
9) And as #Putinswar drags on, the #pandemic will no doubt grow worse in Ukraine in the coming months and has the potential to spread beyond its borders in Europe. Countries must take notice and respond not only to the military crisis but to contain the contagion. End of thread.

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More from @Aaron_Derfel

Mar 1
1) New Zealand, which for so long had fended off the #pandemic with well-planned public health protections, is now in the grip of an #Omicron-driven wave. But unlike Hong Kong where #COVID deaths are soaring, New Zealand is faring much better. In this thread, I will explain why. Image
2) First, though, let us examine the current state of contagion in New Zealand, a progressive island nation of more than 5 million people. The country reported 14,633 new cases of #COVID19 in the community on Monday as it carries out widespread testing, unlike in Canada.
3) New Zealand’s Ministry of Health has declared 344 patients in hospital being treated for #COVID, with five in the ICU. That compares with 1,446 such hospitalizations in Québec, which has a population 8.6 million and which has often resorted to half measures in the #pandemic.
Read 11 tweets
Feb 28
1) Hong Kong has resorted to erecting makeshift modular hospitals from China and building #COVID isolation facilities amid an unprecedented spike in cases, hospitalizations and deaths. All this is being driven by BA.2., the stealth sub-variant of the #Omicron coronavirus. Image
2) Hong Kong declared on Monday more than 26,000 #COVID infections from the day before, the highest than at any other point in the #pandemic. Hong Kong’s health chief confirmed that authorities will not rule out locking down the entire city of 7.4 million to conduct mass testing. Image
3) Until #Omicron and BA.2 hit Hong Kong, the special administrative region had handled the #pandemic relatively well by using a #ZeroCOVID approach. However, less than 40% of Hong Kong’s octogenarians have been vaccinated with even a first dose, let alone a booster.
Read 11 tweets
Feb 27
1) In a little-noticed change, Québec’s public health institute has quietly stopped posting international comparisons on the province’s #COVID death rates. In this thread, I will show why this and other data suppression is blinding Québecers to the true state of the #pandemic.
2) The Institut nationale de santé publique du Québec (INSPQ) discontinued international COVID death comparisons about a month after Premier François Legault asserted that they weren’t fair as the province just happened to be going through its 2nd deadliest wave in the #pandemic. Image
3) Legault instead focused public attention on Québec’s excess deaths from months earlier to show it was faring much better in the #pandemic than other provinces even though its #COVID mortality rate on Jan. 18 was the highest among all wealthy jurisdictions around the world. Image
Read 12 tweets
Feb 24
1) In his zeal to start a war and invade Ukraine, Russian president Vladimir Putin has neglected his own people as so-called excess deaths have surged past more than one million during the #COVID crisis. In this thread, I will return to the subject of pandemics and war. Image
2) “Russia, for instance,” notes Nature magazine, “reported more than 300,000 COVID-19 deaths by the end of 2021, but is likely to have exceeded 1 million excess deaths in that time.” Russia has presumably under-counted #COVID deaths in the lead-up to its invasion of Ukraine. Image
3) In 2021, Russia experienced its sharpest population decline since the end of the Soviet Union three decades earlier, according to the Moscow Times. Russia had only one short lockdown during spring 2020 and less than half the population has received two vaccine doses. Image
Read 10 tweets
Feb 24
1) Montréal’s public health director said Wednesday the city was entering a “transition phase” amid falling #COVID hospitalizations. But 10,500 kilometers away, South Korea's prime minister was appealing for calm amid an unprecedented spike in cases. montrealgazette.com/news/local-new…
2) In just four days, the number of declared #COVID infections in South Korea has soared from 100,000 to more than 171,000 – that nation's highest by far than at any other point in the #pandemic. “There is no reason at all to fear or panic,” Prime Minister Kim Boo-kyum said. Image
3) South Korea has now surpassed the United States in its rate of new weekly #COVID hospitalizations, at a rate of 201.81 per million population compared with the U.S rate of 138.18. This is astonishing given South Korea’s Zero COVID approach in dealing with the #pandemic. Image
Read 11 tweets
Feb 20
1) As COVID hospitalizations trend downward in Québec — dipping by 31 to 1,758 Saturday — everyone is wondering what will happen as the province continues lifting public health protections with the BA.2 sub-variant on the rise. In this thread, I will try to answer that question.
2) First, it’s worth noting the Omicron variant had the hardest impact on hospitalizations in Québec than at any other point in the pandemic. In contrast, although Omicron caused a wave of hospitalizations in South Africa (where it was first detected), past ones there were worse. Image
3) Omicron has also produced the second highest wave of #COVID deaths in Québec. Again in contrast, although Omicron caused a wave of death in South Africa, previous waves there were higher. So what explains the difference between Québec and South Africa? Image
Read 14 tweets

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