Thread by @profdrmaydin

The Russian invasion of Ukraine brought the Montreux Convention of 1936 back to the agenda. I compiled some of its intricacies earlier in a Turkish thread. Let me summarize some of it here.

You can read the Convention in English at cil.nus.edu.sg/wp-content/upl…

For a brief overview of its rules regarding the passage through the Turkish Straits, check the section written by #KudretÖzersay (pp. 224-234) in the #TurkishForeignPolicy, ed. by #BaskınOran and published by #UtahUniversityPress (2010).

Here is a summary table from it👇Please note that these are rules just for transit. There are additional regulations on the types & tonnage of ships that non-riparian states can bring to the Black Sea, the number of days they can stay, & the total tonnage they can keep there.

As Ukrainian President Zelenski has been asking Turkey to close the Straits to Russia and send in an official diplomatic request to that effect, the main issue to be determined is under what conditions Turkey can close the Straits to the passage of ships.

The MFA @MevlutCavusoglu responded to these by stating that Turkey is, first of all, looking to determine whether a "state of war" exists; and that if a "state of war" is detected, the Straits can be closed by taking into account the exceptions in Articles 19, 20 and 21.

The first issue is determining whether there is a "state of war". What Turkey can do is closely related to this. "People are killing each other, Russia has launched an invasion, if this isn't war, what is?" kind of arguments do not make much sense in terms of Int. Law.

According to International Law, for a "state of war" to occur, it must either be declared by the legal organs of a relevant state (this is not done since World War II) or determined by an authorized institution such as the UN must determine that a state of war exists.

3rd countries (e.g., Turkey) may declare the existence of a state of war, but this would bring more controversy in the longer term. Nonetheless, some Turkish legal experts and experts on war have already argued that a “state of war” effectively exists btw Russia and Ukraine.

For example, see
@turgut_tarhanli at

https://twitter.com/turgut_tarhanli/status/1497220086201044998

and @hykaya1 at

https://twitter.com/hykaya1/status/1497612706639007753

Both in Turkish I am afraid.

In practice, at least an "armed conflict" exists, and in terms of the Law of War, there is not much difference btw the “state of war” and “armed conflict” regarding the conflicting parties. Nevertheless, this needs to be determined before Turkey could/would take any steps.

If Turkey decides that a "state of war" exists as a result of its evaluations, the "merchant ships" of all countries will continue passing through the Straits "under the peacetime conditions" (that is, without restrictions) since Turkey is currently not a "warring state".

A possible dispute may also arise re the cargo of merchant ships. Let me emphasize that merchant ships, regardless of their 'flag, cargo, tonnage', could pass at "night & day" with notification of cargo & destination "without...any formality other than health inspection".

Although TR introduced traffic regulations in 1998 through IMO, these don't allow blocking of merchant ships. What will happen if the merchant ships carry weapons to the warring parties or whether civilian vessels with mounted arms on them could pass are intriguing questions.

TR faced these during WWII, during which it occasionally stopped & searched merchant ships due to intelligence or 3rd country complaints but acted selectively and reluctantly, and its implementation was very closely related to the course of the war.
See tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.108…

Most complaints came from the Allied countries regarding the German (a non-Black Sea country) merchant ships passing through the Straits, which was largely ignored by TR while Germany seemed to be winning early on but was acted upon when the war turned against Germany.

If we leave the merchant ships aside and turn to the warships; If Turkey were at war, the passage of all ships would have been at the discretion of Turkey. Since Turkey is not at war, warships belonging to countries that are not at war would pass according to peacetime rules.

Warring state ships cannot pass. There are three exceptions: 1) Ships returning to their mooring port; 2) ships implementing coercive measures of the League of Nations (today the UN); 3) Ships that are traveling in connection with an aid agreement to which Turkey is a party.

First of all, if the existence of a state of war is accepted, these rules will have to be applied to both Russia and Ukraine, which will be considered as warring parties. It cannot be applied only to Russian ships without a separate sanction declared by the UN Security Council.

A decision by the UN General Assembly – aka “Uniting for Peace Resolution”- would bring about the intriguing debate. See securitycouncilreport.org/atf/cf/%7B65BF… -

Secondly, in the current case, military experts say that Russia has already brought back all the ships it wanted in the Black Sea and that the restriction will not make any practical sense. As such, Turkey's closure of the Straits will be purely for a political message.

My current guess is that Turkey will not close the Straits in the short term, and it will delay its decision on the state of war for some time. Should the crises continue and sanctions from its allies on Russia accumulate, Turkey then might be forced to reconsider its position.

Another situation in which TR could limit the passage through Straits, other than in a state of war, is the situation where Turkey is under the "imminent danger of war". If TR makes such a determination, the passage of warships from all countries will be at Turkey's discretion.

Here, the concept of being under "imminent danger of war" does refer to a war occurring in Turkey's close vicinity (for example, between Ukraine and Russia), but to a situation where Turkey itself is exposed to a war threat.

Finally, if Turkey is at war, everything will be entirely at Turkey's discretion. Unroll, please @threadreaderapp