Thread by @MarkHertling

I was a major during Desert Storm. Other armies have attempted to model our actions during that 45 day air campaign & 4 day/100 hour ground campaign.

But they don’t understand the things we applied during that fight. 1/8

The US/alliance had brilliant political leadership in Bush & Powell. There was operational competence in the generals. There was a masterful plan that relied on coordinated intel, logistics & the principles of war. 2/8

Perhaps most importantly, there was a new generation of professional & trained military personnel, with great equipment, sound doctrine, realistic training & terrific leadership development. (A new school for planners -SAMS- also played a huge part). 3/8

During the final years of my career, I tracked to multiple countries - some friendly, a few enemy - who were trying to replicate the approach to success we experienced in Desert Storm. China is strikingly close, Russia never really got the required details. 4/8

The Russian political leadership is bankrupt morally & are an autocratic kleptocracy. They’re criminals. Their generals are - truthfully - mostly hidebound. Their soldiers are not well-trained or cared for. Their planning/exercises are for show only, with little substance. 5/8

The US had some huge challenges with two insurgencies over the last 20 years. Those are tough to fight. But Russias capability to do “operational strike” with large conventional forces was - in my mind - always suspect. 6/8

We’re seeing the results in Ukraine. What’s great to me is Ukraines’s army has - over the last 20 years - broken free of the Russian model they were once a part of. That’s partly because they now better understand the role of security forces in a democratic nation 7/8

Putin hates that. But now, the key question will become will Putin double down on an extremely bad and I’ll-conceived gamble? Hopefully, he’s bluffing with an extremely bad hand, and the west will call his net. 8/8