Thread by @HoansSolo

Short summary of the military situation in Ukraine (March 2) 👇🧵
~80 percent of the combat power that 🇷🇺 had pre-deployed along the 🇺🇦 has now entered the country (per US DoD). Overall operational picture has seen some change over the past 24 hours (caveat: the fog of war).

🇷🇺 forces are still in the process of regrouping, getting re-supplied, a. adapting. There is little evidence of BTGs operating as whole units; Russian air power is still holding back it seems; Reports of low 🇷🇺morale--especially among conscripts--could turn into a real problem.

🇷🇺 forces continue to suffer from poor logistics (food, fuel and even occasional ammo shortages). This will likely be made be worse once BTGs/other 🇷🇺 formations begin conducting combined arms maneuvers (I saw no signs for such a switch just yet) on a large-scale.

Side note: the apparent deficits in Russian military communication genuinely surprised me. Another piece of evidence how tactically/logistically/operationally poorly this early stage of the campaign has been handled by 🇷🇺.

https://twitter.com/HoansSolo/status/1498663892033196032?s=20&t=OGvyoVtDhM_jSwq7qEVbzA

🇷🇺 forces continue to mass for assault on Kyiv. The aim is to surround the city and force mass evacuations of 🇺🇦civilians (expect missile strikes and artillery strikes on the city to terrorize the population; don't expect an imminent assault on the city just yet).

Since the Russian military convoy up in the North was in the new a lot yesterday.The fact that it exists can tell you three things:
1: 🇺🇦 have depleted their surface-to-surface strike capabilities
2: 🇺🇦 air power has been severely reduced
3: 🇷🇺 air/missile defenses are in place

Airspace over the country remains contested. However, the tide seems to be slowly turning and there is little evidence of 🇺🇦TB2 UAV strikes and other operations. At lower altitudes the airspace will remain contested as long as the 🇺🇦 forces have MANPADS (Stingers).

There is some evidence that Russians are moving heavier forces into urban combat in some cities. This below looks like a standard combined arms urban operation.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1498618283309867008?s=20&t=tWg4QMnnqMnKWR3VWrLvpQ

Just a quick note on the fronts. 🇷🇺 have made progress in the South and are advancing (Russians in Kherson) North; so far 🇺🇦 forces continue to fight delaying actions and counter-attack but overall operational picture is worsening in the South.
(map per militaryland.net).

In the North, it looks like 🇺🇦 Ukrainian forces in the Chernihiv area could soon be encircled and cut off due to Russian advances from the East (map per militaryland.net).

🇷🇺 equipment losses remain exceptionally high; 🇺🇦 forces are also suffering substantial losses.

The human/materiel cost of high-intensity war is simply devastating (not to speak of the emotional/psychological terror)
oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack…

Summary:Russians continue to make progress; 🇺🇦 morale remains high;more urban combat ahead; 🇷🇺 will sooner or later control 🇺🇦skies at higher altitudes; 🇷🇺 will still try to encircle/cut off 🇺🇦 forces where possible in pincer movements; 🇷🇺 will deploy/use more ground-based fires.

This map captures the current military situation quite well IMO. Notice the advances in the South following crossing of Dnpr. (map by @washingtonpost)