Thread by @ABarbashin

While were are watching Ukraine, Russia has de-facto established permanent military presence in #Belarus.
Based on this @pavel_luzin for @RiddleRussia
Thread 1/8
ridl.io/en/military-in…

It seems Lukashenka still denies Russia a permanent military base but Russia is becoming more flexible. The ‘Union Resolve 2022′ is technically not an exercise by "test of the Union State’s response force". Regular Zapad Exercise are announced well in advance - this was just 2/8

announced 3 weeks before the start. Regular exercise count from 2500-3000 Russian participants, now the estimations go as high as 30,000. More conservatives estimates give 5k-7k personnel.
3/8

Aside from obvious "Ukraine component" this exercise has a domestic "humanitarian component" as what if what happened in Kazakhstan in January happens in Belarus. Russia will respond fast and strong.
4/8

Lukashenka still denies separate base but we have joint training-and-combat center for air force and air Defence specialists at the Baranovichi airbase since autumn 2021; two similar joint centers are to be established in the Nizhny Novgorod region and near Kaliningrad 5/8

Thus, military integration within the Union State continues, regardless of Lukashenka’s resistance to the emergence of a Russian military base. 6/8

Also a symbolic move is a participation of Belarus military in Russian operation in Syria under Russian command. Russia can do the same for Belarus and thus there would be no need for a Russian base in Belarus. Russian troops might just take parts of BL bases. 7/8

With all the attention to Ukraine, a few question the fundamental military transition transpiring in Belarus.
Read the full piece here. 8/8
ridl.io/en/military-in…