New Russian FP thinking is triumphing. It started taking root in 2014 and now it is finally celebrating its first major act - war on Ukraine.
Thread 1/5
One of the leading Valdai Club guys congratulates us with Russia's finally parting with Western centric world and starting its own journey.
He says for decades Russia used diplomacy but always failed since West didn't listen 2/5
He claims some time will pass and things will come down and Ukraine will be demilitarized and will get a new government and alike Belarus become Russia's close ally. Says if US attempts to increase military presence in CEE - Russia will respond and discourage. 3/5
Suchentsov argues that cyberwarfare would become an everyday norm but eventually Russia will find a balance and the West will cool of as well.
He claims it is more important for Moscow what China, India, Brazil, Pakistan, Turkey and Iran think of this war than the West. 4/5
Suchentsov ends with praising the return of multipolarity and new world order. ru.valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/c…
Comment: he is not being delusional - this is a grand narrative that has been developing for a long time. It is sort of geopolitics + machismo - economy. Forget individual
5/5

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More from @ABarbashin

Feb 25
1/13 Thread on Russian reaction to #war with Ukraine
For years Russian legal and political system has been repressing the most active civic society leaders, those capable of gathering support for street activity. State adapted multitude of laws that penalize protests of any kind
Despite all that (details below) we are seeing massive protests all across the country for the second day in the row. That is both inspiring and astonishing. I would like this to be known and reported. That Russians showed their disagreement with what Putin does to Ukraine. 2/13
Here is a good explainer to what was done in 2021 alone in terms of adapting political system to a more war-like authoritarian rail
ridl.io/en/one-year-in…
With first and by most elimination of the main opposition force - Navalny and his organization 3/13
Read 13 tweets
Feb 22
My take for @RiddleRussia with a few takeaways on why February 21st will mark a new reality for Russian foreign policy for at least the next decade. Thread 1/7
ridl.io/en/putin-in-th…
The entire show: from Security Council meeting to Putin's speech to signing the documents was unprecedented. The level of humiliation of Putin's boyars and degree of his conspiracy theory driven motivation behind Russian FP stance is a new high 2/7
No longer can any Russian argue for a "smart" realpolitik justification or some other civilized version of Putin's actions: he made it clear it was about him not recognizing Ukraine and believing US wants to destroy Russia. 3/7
Read 7 tweets
Feb 20
While were are watching Ukraine, Russia has de-facto established permanent military presence in #Belarus.
Based on this @pavel_luzin for @RiddleRussia
Thread 1/8
ridl.io/en/military-in…
It seems Lukashenka still denies Russia a permanent military base but Russia is becoming more flexible. The ‘Union Resolve 2022′ is technically not an exercise by "test of the Union State’s response force". Regular Zapad Exercise are announced well in advance - this was just 2/8
announced 3 weeks before the start. Regular exercise count from 2500-3000 Russian participants, now the estimations go as high as 30,000. More conservatives estimates give 5k-7k personnel.
3/8
Read 8 tweets
Feb 16
Karaganov here promotes emerging Russian discourse of "constructive destruction" of Western-centeric Russian foreign policy. In other words - practical steps towards multipolarity in the 21st century. Thread. 1/
Karaganov says Russia does not wish to war with anyone for now for as long as it is not threatened (taking Ukraine to the West is a threat). Basically, he says Russia needs to wait out until West finally gives up pretending that it is almighty and a deal would be made
Then Russia can rebuild its relations with the West to balance growing might of China.
Karaganov, unlike Kortunov for instance, claims Russia should abandon all attempts to play by the West's rule and invest in new rules of Greater Eurasia.
Read 9 tweets
Feb 3
What will happen in Russia domestically in case Russia - US talks fail and major escalation is on its way. @Stanovaya here for @CarnegieRussia raises a number of important points. Thread 1/9
Naturally if the frontier is on fire, all the conservative forces would accelerate their efforts to secure the country from within with triple speed.
Obviously the first target would be the internet. 2/9
I can imagine a situation of a massive coordinated attack by Rozkomnadzor+ on foreign platforms with demands to ban "war propaganda" which could be anything and everything that Russia would be denying at the moment: failure to comply will lead to slowing down and blocking 3/9
Read 9 tweets
Feb 2
Insightful @pavel_luzin on the evolution of Russian defense policy based on recent drills in #Belarus, #CSTO events in #Kazakhstan and all the maneuvering around #Ukraine. Thread 1/12
ridl.io/en/the-dynamic…
1. Luzin asserts that you need to add defense spending to “National Security and Law Enforcement” budget spending to see a broader picture and it is that spending is on the rise since 2021 and will rise at least until 2024 after stabilization of 2017–2020. 2/12
Russia seems to have already entered a phase of long-term increase in spending. From the perspective of the Russian authorities, the need for such an increase is no longer closely linked to the overall growth rate of the economy. 3/12
Read 12 tweets

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