๐งต 5th day of the Ukraine war - a brief roundup๐
1/ As for the financial markets and economic impact, today was a bloodbath:
- Putin banned citizens and companies to transfer money abroad
- Russian stock exchange was meant to open today but it didn't. In fact, it was announced tomorrow will stay closed
2/
- After BP, Shell today exited its partnership with Gazprom
- India's state bank stopped processing sanctioned Russian entities
- NASDAQ and NYSE stopped processing stocks sfrom Russian-based companies
- Apple and Google Pay no longer work on Moscow's metro (& other places?)
3/ - Russian Central Bank raised interest rate from 9 to 20%
- Widespread bank run reported and people queueing in front of those few ATMs that dispense USD
On another front, Russia has been expelled from the World Cup qualifier.
4/ In the military front, a considerable damage to civilian infrastructure especially in Kharkiv and also loss of life. Graphic images came out that cannot be shared.
Russia seems to have brought another plan to the table as the old one did not work.
5/ This plan is typically a war of attrition with siege of the cities, indiscriminate bombing and blocking arrival of ammo/food.
At this point the news of the movement of Russian columns indicate an effort in order to ENCIRCLE and not APPROACH Kyiv.
What is clear: the mounting international and economic pressure and dissent will limit how long such a plan can be pursued.
At this point, it is very difficult to see how Putin can get anything tangible for all that he has expensed for this war.
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It is a workday hence I just get the lunchtime to tweet - so here is the ๐งต Lunchtime Roundup on the War in Ukraine:
1) Kharkiv is being punished for its resistance with a barrage of MLRS (Grad and Smerch). Reports of dozens of civilian casualties. Very graphic footages of the slain coming out (not this one), which I would not include.
They are creating another Aleppo.
2) Battle in Chernihiv NE of Kyiv is raging with columns of smoke rising from the city.
It is clear Russian forces are not engaging directly while the peace talks are ongoing.
๐งต4th day of the conflict Russia/Ukraine - Summary roundup: ๐
1) Waking up this morning to news of Russian forces with light armour in Kharkiv. Hours later we saw the remaining debris of those vehicles and mop-up operation cleared the Russian forces. Kharkiv is still in Ukrainian control.
2) A long column of Russian forces approached Kyiv from north west in Bucha south of Gostomel. After demolishing the bridge between Bucha and Iprin, the column was completely obliterated.
I cannot tell you how much of an insult this is to the the Islamic Republic which has hailed itself as the liberator of masses from the tyranny of the kings.
But since 2017-18 protests, people have gone back to appreciate how much Reza shah did for Iran. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reza_Shah
As for Isfahan, even though they did not chant any non-water related slogans, as I predicted below, security forces have moved to dismantle and tear apart protesters' shelters.
I think these protests will not be tolerated much longer.
Rapport has jumped up from the crowded 2760-3 pack and now among the top 10 of the world. #chess
Can Alireza "Firo" Firouzja pull a similar with two rounds remaining from #NorwayChess ? He will be playing against the bottom (fellow Iranian Aryan Tari) and top, Rapport.
Yes, in fact Norwegian Aryan Tari is actually Aryan "Taheri", son of Iranian parents (perhaps changed names after emigrating to Norway).
#BREAKING He did it! The 18-year-old Alireza "Firo" Firouzja now among the top 10 in the world! My guess is he is the youngest but cannot be sure. #Chess
Tomorrow @rafaelmgrossi, head of IAEA will visit Iran, in what looked like an ultimatum visit.
However, below suggest a much more benign nature, requesting for standard monitoring in exchange for withholding a damning resolution in the Board of Governors.
@rafaelmgrossi This seems to be the result of the European influence in US's dealing with Iran - from whose tone and rhetoric we could sense a feeling of impatience and "having enough".
But whatever is offered here, Iran must just simply accept. We are nearing the point of a seismic shift...
@rafaelmgrossi ... in dealing with Iran and lack of cooperation from Iran can very quickly change the situation.
Will Iran realise this or carry on the game of buying time? I have a feeling they will reluctantly say they would cooperate only to later act otherwise.