Ali Profile picture
11 Sep, 5 tweets, 3 min read
Tomorrow @rafaelmgrossi, head of IAEA will visit Iran, in what looked like an ultimatum visit.

However, below suggest a much more benign nature, requesting for standard monitoring in exchange for withholding a damning resolution in the Board of Governors.
@rafaelmgrossi This seems to be the result of the European influence in US's dealing with Iran - from whose tone and rhetoric we could sense a feeling of impatience and "having enough".

But whatever is offered here, Iran must just simply accept. We are nearing the point of a seismic shift...
@rafaelmgrossi ... in dealing with Iran and lack of cooperation from Iran can very quickly change the situation.

Will Iran realise this or carry on the game of buying time? I have a feeling they will reluctantly say they would cooperate only to later act otherwise.

...
@rafaelmgrossi But one thing is sure: this game will finish in the next couple of months. And I can already see a swift escalation of tensions once the West gives up on negotiation.

A bruised Biden will make sure this will not slip through his fingers.
PS:
White smoke coming out!

But as I pointed out last night, this will be simply a scheme for buying time. Expect @rafaelmgrossi soon to complaint about the lack of progress on what was agreed here.

We have seen this movie several times before.

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More from @aliostad

11 Aug
🚨⚠️🚨 #VeryLongThread 🚨⚠️🚨

My apologies but there isn't enough emoji in the world to be able to capture the gravity of human catastrophe in Iran due to #COVID19.

I wrote a thread 10 days ago but it is just so much worse.

TL;DR
If you cannot read the whole thread, here are the takeaways:

- The health system already imploded under load
- Patients admitted on the floor of hospitals
- Shortage of coffins and morgue vehicles let alone beds
- Iran theocracy does not back down from Moharram ceremonies
Chairman of the society of Emergency Medicine in Iran:

"The health system already imploded - even private hospitals - and the officials know it. Patients with 50% O2 level in ward beds, waiting for ICU patients to die. There is nothing we can do."

Read 41 tweets
10 Aug
#Thread How to make a full blown protest out of absolutely nothing (a pretty harmless video) - Iranian Style

Prologue
Junqan, a town with the population of 14K, in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province. Most Iranians had not heard its name before today.
Preface

This man, admittedly brave and named Habib Fadaee, went on a soapbox 20 days ago to state his support for the people of Khuzestan and their protests.

The video was circulated in the social media although we did not know much more. Obviously people forgot about it.
ACT I - the security forces decide to arrest him this morning, as now protests are over and they need to show him who is the boss.

This resulted in a protests by the locals of Junqan - here is his son recording this video.
Read 13 tweets
2 Aug
🚨🚨🚨#LongishThread 🚨🚨🚨
I know I am sounding like a broken record now, but Iran's health system is experiencing a crisis not seen before, due to COVID's 5th wave.

Universal shortage of beds, ventilator, ICU and even saline drips across the country. Casualties mounting.
This is a hospital in the southern province of Bushehr. Patients on the floor receiving oxygen.

If the 3rd wave were a 7 Richter earthquake, this is surely above than 8.

The same seen here in northwestern city of Tabriz, Iran's 4th largest city.

Health minister has asked for permission to SHUT DOWN THE COUNTRY for 2 weeks.

Read 19 tweets
31 Jul
So that was it? The protests stopped?

While days 14 and 15 we had almost no protests, days 16 and 17 suddenly we saw some major protests again.

As I said, something has changed. With a little trigger or opportunity, people show their resentment.

Yesterday (day 16) was the last day of the Iranian football league with Perspolis winning the championship. The celebrations quickly turned to the scenes of protests in Tehran, Karaj, Qazvin, etc.

This is the scene with security forces clashing riding on motorbikes.
The tip of the slogans are directed towards the Supreme Leader in an unprecedented way.

Here they use a slur word, calling him a 'pimp'.
Read 9 tweets
4 Apr
Week 55-57 - #COVID19 in Iran

The 4th wave is now finally confirmed.

Picking up from 3 weeks ago [due to lack of development waiting for a more coherent picture to develop]

Read 15 tweets
30 Dec 20
Look guys - THE SITUATION IN THE MIDDLE EAST IS PRETTY SERIOUS.

(I know you might say when it wasn't but we are talking risk of a big conflict)

The thread on the reports from the last 24 hours: /0
On the Iranian side, I have seen anecdotal comments from tweeps close to IRGC that "the big fight" is very close and mothers should prepare for the martyrdom of their sons.

[Prefer not to include the tweets]
Israeli Air Force commander describing the situation in the middle east as "explosive".

Read 17 tweets

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