Brief summary of the military situation in Ukraine (March 3) ๐๐งต
Russia has now moved the bulk of forces it had pre-staged along the ๐บ๐ฆ border into Ukraine (per US DoD).
Still unclear what % of ๐ท๐บ forces have been committed to combat.
Russia has now moved the bulk of forces it had pre-staged along the ๐บ๐ฆ border into Ukraine (per US DoD).
Still unclear what % of ๐ท๐บ forces have been committed to combat.
This map captures the situation quite accurately IMO.
๐ท๐บs have taken their first regional capital in the South (Kherson);๐บ๐ฆ counterattacks have reportedly pushed ๐ท๐บ forces out of Mykolaiv.
Watch out of for ๐ท๐บbreakthroughs in Donbas; overall situation in Mariupol is grave.
๐ท๐บs have taken their first regional capital in the South (Kherson);๐บ๐ฆ counterattacks have reportedly pushed ๐ท๐บ forces out of Mykolaiv.
Watch out of for ๐ท๐บbreakthroughs in Donbas; overall situation in Mariupol is grave.
๐ท๐บ are continuing their advance in the South while regrouping/adapting. Logistical issues persist with ๐ท๐บsupply convoys coming under repeated ๐บ๐ฆ attacks. Also, there has been uptick in the Russian use of air power (video: strikes of Su-25s outside Kyiv)
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1499230092878307342?s=20&t=oXNhiWbjBcehOSOIf5vHWg
Russian forces are reportedly taking heavy casualties.
๐ท๐บequipment losses suffered in Ukraine now exceed 500. oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attackโฆ
๐ท๐บequipment losses suffered in Ukraine now exceed 500. oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attackโฆ
Also signs that ๐บ๐ฆ is taking heavy casualties: ๐บ๐ฆ air force appears to be largely knocked out; air defenses are also getting slowly degraded (save at low altitudes).
Some evidence that aggressive ๐บ๐ฆ counterattacks are also causing excessive U. casualties and are attriting ๐บ๐ฆ.
Some evidence that aggressive ๐บ๐ฆ counterattacks are also causing excessive U. casualties and are attriting ๐บ๐ฆ.
Russia is in the process of establishing air superiority.
Airspace at lower altitude will continue to be contested due to MANPADS. However, more ๐ท๐บair power (including rotary wing) is being committed. Expect additional uptick in bombings in coming days.
Airspace at lower altitude will continue to be contested due to MANPADS. However, more ๐ท๐บair power (including rotary wing) is being committed. Expect additional uptick in bombings in coming days.
https://twitter.com/HoansSolo/status/1498893095840137216?s=20&t=gT74ri4rQxvdoGaGq1PTvA
We still have not seen much ๐ท๐บcombined arms operations. No indication that BTGs (see slide by Markus Reisner on average BTG structure) have been used. Some indication of ๐ท๐บcompany tactical groups in action. There appears to be a noticeable lack of coordination at tactical level.
Little change and heavy fighting on the Northern frontline and on Kyiv. This is where Russians genuinely failed in their initial objectives. On all other fronts, Russians have been making slow but steady progress. Mil. situation for ๐บ๐ฆ can become quite critical in coming days.
Remember this is only day 7 of this war. Much heavier fighting ahead as Russians will step up the pressure and commit more firepower (air and ground) and force ๐บ๐ฆ cities to surrender. ๐ท๐บ still want to avoid large-scale urban combat.
๐ท๐บ objective remains destruction of bulk of ๐บ๐ฆ forces via deep operations.
๐บ๐ฆ fighting morale remains high; conflicting reports on ๐ท๐บ morale (treat any reports on this with extreme caution given information warfare operations by both sides.)
๐บ๐ฆ fighting morale remains high; conflicting reports on ๐ท๐บ morale (treat any reports on this with extreme caution given information warfare operations by both sides.)
Summary: ๐บ๐ฆ military situation in South and East can reach a critical stage in coming days; ๐ท๐บ are stalled in North but making progress on other frontlines. Impact of ๐ท๐บ fighting morale on ops. is the big "known unknown".
*around Kyiv
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