laurence norman Profile picture
Mar 1 7 tweets 2 min read
Let me translate that. France not willing to force the @iaeaorg to terminate prematurely a probe into undeclared radioactive material found in Several locations in Iran which Tehran has spent three years failing to answer questions about it. Iran threatens to kill JCPOA over it.
And let me remind you that Iran has repeatedly, repeatedly pledged to cooperate with the agency on this probe that they're now trying to shut down.
"The IAEA Director General will also visit Tehran in the near future to hold high level consultations with the Government...of Iran with the aim of enhancing cooperation between Iran & the IAEA... & discussing current issues of mutual interest." iaea.org/newscenter/pre… -3-
All of which raises the big question. Where sits Washington on this? Will it agree a compromise which scales back or time limits the @iaeaorg probe? Or will it insist that IAEA able to complete probe into undeclared nuclear material in line with its core duties? -4-
U.S. sources making it categorically clear that they will not back off on @iaeaorg freedom to complete its probe. My steer from western sources is there's no split within P5+1 on this question. -5-
"Iran is isolated on this," senior western source. -6-
dear IRNA, best you run an update now to fix your France stonewalls disinfo.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with laurence norman

laurence norman Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @laurnorman

Mar 3
#IranTalks: Let's not underestimate significance of @rafaelmgrossi Tehran trip. Let's assume it succeeds, which is definitely an assumption. But if so, it removes probably the toughest of the three remaining issues on the table. Then we can imagine a quick pathway to deal.
-1-
At that point, we have 2 issues essentially. Economic guarantee push from Iran & sanctions scope push. Econ guarantees was worked on for weeks. Iran knows not going to get much more than pretty words. Maybe it gets a few more pretty words. But won't change US legal reality -2-
On the other hand, we know Iran wants unconditional FTO removal from IRGC & I suspect a few other key demands on sanctions. There's a potential (STRESS POTENTIAL) trade-off here. Back off on economic guarantees, US gives a bit more on sanctions. -3-
Read 6 tweets
Mar 2
Managed to check in with several sources tonight. This is where I think we stand on #IranTalks and some key points...
1 -- Diplos genuinely don't know which way this is going, Most still think this could come together but confidence levels on this are low. The differences that were there on Monday when Bagheri-Kani returned are still there -- safeguards, sanctions scope, economic guarantees.
2 -- Ukraine/Russia has landed in talks in several ways. A: Russia team more tentative about clearing ideas without checking. B, it hardens the idea that diplomatic window to land this deal is short. C/ Optics of sitting down with Russia on this getting more complicated in DC.
Read 6 tweets
Mar 2
IAEA @rafaelmgrossi - not ducking issue. “We are meeting today to discuss the nuclear safety, security and safeguards implications of the conflict in Ukraine as a result of the Russian Federation’s military operation that began on 24 February.”
“The situation in Ukraine is unprecedented and I continue to be gravely concerned. It is the first time a military conflict is happening amidst the facilities of a large, established nuclear power programme,” -2-
“I have called for restraint from all measures or actions that could jeopardize the security of nuclear and other radioactive material...because any such incident could have severe consequences, aggravating human suffering and causing environmental harm.” -3-
Read 7 tweets
Mar 1
So I understand Swift de-listing package was ready, with its 7 banks & the Belarus sanctions package also. But both on hold because Poland wants more in both, I'm told. So the media sanctions are set to be approved at 2100 CET. But another meeting needed for Swift, Belarus today.
Coreper meeting again at 1900 to come back to this.
Polish source notes that @MorawieckiM said this evening that Polish governments wants all Russian banks delisted from Swift.
Read 4 tweets
Feb 24
On the EU, yes there are different requests from different member states for safeguards. Yes, this will need to be negotiated, sorted out. Yes, the EU will probably carry on importing energy from Russia and there will no doubt be other exemptions. But...-1-
if you think they won't agree a broad package, along the lines of what the Commission/EEAS proposes, agreed in principle tonight and hammered out over next days, then I'd suggest you haven't been watching how the EU has moved this week. -2-
And never lose sight of the fact that while Washington and Europe have worked closely together, the US has massive leverage to force Europe's hands over sanctions. Iran is a reminder of that. European leaders finally learned that lesson after 2018.-3-
Read 4 tweets
Feb 24
On Russia's #Ukraine nuclear work allegations, let's note this from @iaeaorg chief @rafaelmgrossi last June. IAEA not able to declare Ukraine's "broader conclusion" that its using nuclear energy for purely peaceful purposes for 1 reason: Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea etc-1-
"The integrity of the safeguards process is paramount, and in this context, let me state that efforts continue in order that the Agency be able, once again, to draw the broader conclusion for Ukraine. I want to make clear this issue arises from current circumstances" -2-
"preventing the Agency from verifying certain nuclear material and the Agency has no proliferation concerns," @rafaelmgrossi. iaea.org/iaea-director-… -3-
Read 5 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(