Thread by @scharap

Brief thread on my new @FT oped:
"Russia has launched an unprecedented act of aggression against Ukraine. The United States and its allies must respond forcefully." 1/x

on.ft.com/3hxsuPV

"But as they do, they should take into account the possibility of triggering a spiral of escalation that could lead to the only outcome worse than the invasion of Ukraine itself: a hot war between Russia and Nato." The piece briefly describes the risks and offers 4 recs. 2/x

"First, the US and Nato military chiefs should maintain the channels of communication they have with their Russian counterparts." 3/x

"2nd,during the phase of active Russian combat operations, these channels could be used to provide additional transparency — so long as doing so does not undermine operational security — about the nature of US and Nato force movements to the allied states bordering Ukraine."4/x

"Third, the west could leverage some sanctions to push Putin to abandon his core war aim of decapitating the Ukrainian government and installing a pro-Russian puppet." This is perhaps the most urgent and important step. 5/x

"Fourth, assistance to the Ukrainian military should be co-ordinated among allies, carefully calibrated, and conducted outside public view. 6/x

The West must respond to this aggression. But avoiding either an inadvertent escalation or a tit-for-tat spiral that leads us into a Russia-NATO conflict is extremely important. END