One gets the sense that folks in this town smell blood in the proverbial water regarding the stability of the (odious) Putin regime. Let's file that under "careful what you wish for". Thread. 1/7
The scenario of a liberal reformist successor coming to power who begs forgiveness for Putin's sins would be great, but it would also be great to win the lottery. Equally if not more plausible are regime change scenarios that work out badly for everyone, Ukraine included.2/7
This regime is unlikely to go down without a fight against enemies domestic and foreign, real and imagined. Regime security = national security in the leaders' minds, and they'll treat threats to the former as threats to the latter. 3/7
Keep in mind that Russian strategists have long posited that the (US) attempt to take them down will combine threats on the periphery, domestic unrest, and external military aggression. see ch 4 of the report @MassDara and I co-led: 4/7 rand.org/pubs/research_…
And if they are convinced that our policy is aimed at regime change, they will hit back, hard. 5/7
One real possibility is that an even-more-hardliner than Putin comes to power. Gorbachev 2.0 is far from inevitable. 6/7
Regime change in Russia might seem like the only way out of this tragedy. But on closer examination it poses huge risks and is no more likely to make things better, than it is to make them worse. 7/7
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