Pic of yesterday's Russian incursion into Swedish air space close to #Gotland where Finnish and Swedish MoD were meeting at time to inspect an exercise. Good news is they aren't flying in tactical formation, but rather bunched up in a more peaceful formation. #FISE#turpo=#säkpol
Bad news is that that is still two Su-24 strike aircraft escorted by two Su-27 fighters knowingly violating the airspace of a sovereign state with the aim of pressuring them to change their foreign policy.
I suggest that we do not give in to international bullying.
*Major* plot twist to the story about Russian aircraft violating Swedish airspace a few weeks back. Reports are out that the two Su-24 carried nuclear weapons. #Su24#NuclearThreat#Russiatv4.se/artikel/6cNV5s…
So far the Air Force and MoD decline to comment the claim made by unspecified sources, but also doesn't deny it. This certainly could explain the lack of released close-up imagery of the intruders.
It's difficult to overstate how brazen of a threat this was if #Russia really flew nuclear armed strike aircraft into Swedish airspace. Finland must - a people following me know I don't use the word lightly - react strongly if the claim is confirmed. #turpo=#säkpol#FISE
And we must react both to show support for Sweden, but also for our own selfish interests. This is simply unacceptable, and we must ensure that Russia feel the gesture wasn't worth the consequences. #turpo=#säkpol
...and obviously, we needed #NATO-membership already yesterday, and need it even more so now.
Seems first version of text mentioned Kh-32, which is not carried by Su-24. Points towards the news being fake. Again, the Swedish government or Air Force really need to issue a strong denial if the information is false. Border violations are bad enough.
I am reading this quote by the Air Force CinC as a denial that there were nukes: svt.se/nyheter/inrike…
"Exactly how the Russian aircraft were armed is not something we will comment upon right now. I would like to emphasise that if we had seen an increased threat directed against Sweden we would have informed the public about that"
So to sum it up, I'd say the evidence points to someone having been able to fool TV4 with an invented story. I'm going to state there were no nukes, unless someone has some evidence to the contrary (knowingly violating another country's airspace is bad in itself, though).
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...which is found in this paper: iai.it/en/pubblicazio… . Yes, there's a bunch of caveats about it being a few years old and any estimate is bound to have some uncertainty, but if we assume it gives the correct order of magnitude...
Russia has so far, only counting confirmed losses, lost 9.2 % of their T-72B3 versions, 18.4 % of their T-80-fleet, and 4.8 % of their T-90! That's huge! Even if the number of operational tanks are off by 10-30 % that's staggering losses. One in ten modern T-72, one in five T-80!
The interesting things and missing link is the S-300V / SA-12. As @thewarzonewire notes there are *no* NATO-countries operating the system. The only operator making any kind of sense I would argue is Egypt, and that's a long shot. #S300Ven.wikipedia.org/wiki/S-300_mis…
64 aircraft, weaponry suitable for Finnish scenario, all gate checks passed, budget within framework (including annual costs below set limit of 254 MEUR).
Okay, time for another thread on everyone's favourite topic - the real cost of #F35 and can #Finland afford it in #HXhanke. The reason is that the Norwegian budget and Swiss acquisition costs are out, and they have caused quite a stir. 1/x #turpo=#säkpol
The Swiss number caused quite a stir, including talk about the aircraft having gone up 20% in cost since the decision was made. I don't quite get those figures, but an increase of 17% (5.07 Bn CHF to 5.95 Bn CHF). 2/x vbs.admin.ch/content/vbs-in…
A key detail here is that the exchange rate of USD to CHF has grown somewhat worse for the Swiss since February when the original figures came in, so I get an increase in USD of 13%. Still bad, but not quite on par with the dreaded 20% figure. 3/x
The five suspected #terrorists arrested in Finland today (though considering the police has had eyes on them for years we can most probably for all intents and purposes drop "suspected") represent a hardcore version of #accelerationism or #SiegeCulture. Explanatory thread below.
In short, they are inspired by James Mason's ideas that through terror a race war can be kicked off, and then the white state can rise from the ashes. The most (in)famous group to adhere to the theory is likely #AtomwaffenDivision.
Notable is that these organisations often work in small isolated groups without connection to the larger and more visible far-right networks, something which the Finnish police also pointed out.
Seems western hunters flying to Africa to shoot rare species is again in the headlines, this time in Sweden. I understand why this makes people upset, however, the situation is more complex than evil wannabe-colonialists wanting zebra heads above their fireplace.
Some of the serious threats to African wildlife (to the extent such generalisations can be done to such a vast continent holding any number of different habitats) include poaching (due to either value of animal products or to protect crops and livestock) and habitat loss.
Obviously, these are driven by local developments, and biodiversity simply isn't as interesting to most people if it means your living wage is directly negatively affected by it (I will argue this is true for most westerners as well).