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Michael A. Horowitz Profile picture
@michaelh992
Mar 4, 2022 • 40 tweets • 15 min read • Read on X
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Thread on #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine - March 4
After the clashes reported last night in Enerhodar, the mayor of the city reported that some Russian vehicles broke into the city. He claims that Russian forces went straight for the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant
According to the mayor there are some wounded at the site due to the fighting. The clashes obviously prompted significant concern for the safety of the plant.
Minutes ago, the Ukrainian emergency services issued a message indicating that firefighters had been sent to the scene to extinguish a fire. (translated statement below)

facebook.com/MNS.GOV.UA/pos…
🚩The fire broke out at a training facility OUTSIDE of the nuclear plant's actual perimeter, according to the Ukrainian emergency services. Russian forces initially did not allow the firefighter access to the area (but they did moments ago).

(translated statement ⬇️)
As a result, there's been no radiation change in the reported radiation levels ⬇️
I am not saying this is not a very concerning incident. This shows the need for some sort of agreements between #Ukraine and #Russia to avoid fighting near nuclear power plant. There's already been an arrangement between the two in Chernobyl.
The main issue, is that I think #Russia views the nuclear plants as high-value targets they want to secure - as highlighted by the mayor of Enerhodar who said Russian forces rapidly moved towards the plant as they tried to enter the city.
Video of the firefight that broke out near the plant ⬇️

Geolocation of the building:
google.com/maps/place/47%…
The actions of Putin directly threatened the security of Europe even before the fighting near the nuclear power plant. Kind of thought people had come to realize that already.
#Breaking #Ukraine's emergency service says that as of 06:20, the fire at Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant has been extinguished
You have to salute the courage of the firefighters who went to extinguish a fire at a nuclear plant in the middle of armed clashes. Where the Russians are reckless, the Ukrainians are brave.
Russian forces seem to have captured a Javelin anti-tank missile according to this picture (location unknown)
Enerhodar mayor, says the streets of the city are now calm, no "strangers" (i.e. Russians) in view. Recommends avoiding moving in the street and staying home if possible.
Zaporozhye Regional Military Administration (where the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant is located) says that radiation levels in the region as of 07:00 today remain unchanged, and do not represent a threat.
Ukrainian military released these pictures, showing destroyed Russian vehicles near Brovary, in the eastern outskirts of Kyiv
#Ukraine State Inspectorate for Nuclear Regulation confirms the site Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant is occupied by the military forces of the Russian Federation
Russian state TV at the Hostomel airport near Kyiv (the question is when? there was Ukrainian counter-offensive nearby yesterday)
VERY GRAPHIC: Footage of the aftermath of clashes in Hostomel near Kyiv
Russian forces deployed in Trotyanets, in the Sumy region #Ukraine
The Ukrainian military shot down a Russian Su-25 aircraft over the city of Volnovaha, in the Donbass according to the General Staff of the armed forces. Pilot ejected.

Source:
facebook.com/10006909262453…
Rosgvardia Chechen unit in #Ukraine
Destroyed Ukrainian armored car at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant
Geolocation likely on the side of the building that was targeted by Russian forces in the clashes here
Russian aircraft in Tel Aviv, gets its signal with the Ukrainian flag
The Ukrainian military claims that Russian forces have exhausted their reserves and began to transfer additional units from the Eastern and Southern Military Districts, as they continue to try and and surround Kyiv
Ukrainian military also reports continued Russian preparations for a landing near Odessa. Two Russian landing ships are positioned off the coast of Chornomorsk near Odessa.
Kharkiv
The Russian Ministry of Defense released a video showing its Orion drone operating in the Donbass #Ukraine
Additional image from Kharkiv, which Russia continues to shell indiscriminately
Russian forces in front of the city council in Enerhodar, the city close to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant
Geolocation
google.com/maps/place/Ene…
The nuclear plant itself has also been confirmed to be under Russian control earlier this morning after clashes that led to a fire inside one of the buildings (since extinguished)
Russian forces near the police station in Enerhodar

Geolocation:
google.com/maps/place/47%…
Irpin near Kyiv: Multiple direct impacts on a residential buildings
Russian forces in Kherson brought trucks of aid. Residents organized a protest to denounce the Russian invasion.
The Ukrainian military claims to have shot down another Russian Su-25 jet. No location specified.
facebook.com/GeneralStaff.u…
Residents of Novopskov in the Luhansk region stage a protest against the #Russian occupation.
Smerch rockets have once again been used in Kharkiv against civilian buildings

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More from @michaelh992

Michael A. Horowitz Profile picture
May 30
As of now, Gantz and the opposition do not have the votes necessary to pass such a bill, unless there are defections within Netanyahu's own coalition. The question is whether this is an effort to encourage such defections or Gantz does have an indication that there are already defectors? It might also be a gamble, with no real plan.
As a reminder, Gantz has given Netanyahu a deadline (until June 8) to respond to six key demands. Netanyahu rejected the ultimatum moments after it was issued, and there were voices inside Gantz's own party who called to simply leave the government even ahead of the deadline
Advancing a bill to dissolve the Knesset would suggest Gantz is on his way out of the government.
Read 5 tweets
Michael A. Horowitz Profile picture
Oct 15, 2023
Another Go-pro footage of #Hamas militants going house to house in Sufa, near #Gaza, during the October 7 attacks, shooting at civilians inside houses (a civilian can be seen in the living room, and falls after being shot).
In this video, a #Hamas militant fires at an ambulance stationed within the border community to make sure it cannot be used.
In this one, #Hamas militants enter a house, they hear a phone ring and try to find people inside the house.

They shoot upstairs, then one of the militants shouts "mother" trying to mimic a child, possibly to attract civilians hiding in the house.
Read 4 tweets
Michael A. Horowitz Profile picture
Oct 11, 2023
#Israel, #Gaza: Over the past day/two there have been conflicting reports about a possible #Egyptian warning that "something big" was going to happen.

Here is my understanding (based on various accounts and info in Israeli and Egyptian media) of what may have happened - with the Caveat, that we don't have the full picture yet:

1. The report that the Egyptian Intelligence Minister spoke to Netanyahu about this upcoming threat is wrong about at least one thing: Anybody involved in diplomatic protocole knows that cooperation is done on the same level. If Egypt's intel minister spoke to someone, it's unlikely to be Netanyahu but a minister.

2. There was from what I understand, a warning from #Egypt. The warning was passed to the Israeli security apparatus (unclear to me exactly who).

3. This warning was based, in part, on increased military exercises, training and mobilization from Hamas. The message Egypt received is that Israel knew about all of this.

4. Israel, however, had a different interpretation, and felt Hamas was just flexing its muscle. It took some measures, on Friday evening and was about to discuss more in the next day. That's when the attack happened. Israel did not get that this was going to happen now.

5. This interpretation was based on the overall assessment that Hamas was still deterred, and focused on fueling tensions in the West Bank rather than Gaza. This assessment, served to negates signs on the ground that Egypt picked up, but that Israel had also picked up - but misinterpreted.

In the end, Egypt's interpretation, proved right, in the worse way.
BTW, this is a textbook case of intel failure, one routed in the processing of info and in the analysis. @AnshelPfeffer noted the similarities with the Kippur War and the "concept" (I recommend his thread on this).

I can also say, as an analyst working in the field of intelligence (in a much more limited way to be clear), and having studied the intelligence cycle, this is an even more broadly reported intel failure. Collection drives analysis, and collection should be allowed to overturn analysis and assessments, not the opposite.

Major intel failures can result from prolonged (or short) periods in which analysis inadvertently overrules collection. The main assessment is validated and reinforced by "collected facts" because contradictory evidence is ignored by design.

Same with the second part of the cycle, which is tied to the dissemination of information to the political echellon. If it works in reverse, it trickles down, and you open yourself up for major failures in intel.
Image
That's true and a good point. Collection in itself isn't "facts", and analysis vets and reshapes collected intel, which makes the mistake I mentioned even more likely to happen.
Read 4 tweets
Michael A. Horowitz Profile picture
Oct 11, 2023
(GRAPHIC) Remains of what appears to be a young child, burned in his home in Kfar Aza, posted by South First Reponders. Image
I did very much hesitate to post this. But given the astonishing debates and discussions about whether children were killed and how, I did decide to post this.

On the source: South First Responders is a group of emergency personnel who are identifying corpses - something I have verified.
Additional pictures of a young woman shot in her bedroom Image
Read 5 tweets
Michael A. Horowitz Profile picture
Jun 27, 2023
I personally don't buy that Lukashenko played this kind of role as a mediator.
For some reason, Putin is giving him this win, but I don't see Lukashenko as more than a figurehead.
There could be several reasons, including because a decision to resettle Wagner to Belarus without really consulting Lukashenko would show him for the puppet he is.

Or because Luka will now have to live with the fact the the mutineers of yesterday are on his own territory
Read 4 tweets
Michael A. Horowitz Profile picture
Jun 8, 2023
🧵Here is more info I received on the risks posed by the destruction of the Nova Kakhovka dam to the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant
When reactors are in production, the plant uses the waters in the nearby pond to cool reactors Image
When the reactors are not in production, or in case of an accident, cooling is ensured through smaller cooling "fountains" situated closer to the cores. Image
Read 8 tweets

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