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Nicholas Drummond

@nicholadrummond

Mar 6

A large number of Conservative MPs are pressuring Boris Johnson to substantially increase UK Defence spending. This is a welcome move. But if extra investment comes, I would expect it to go towards the Royal Navy and RAF before the Army. So what would be the priorities?
1/12

The first priority is to get everything we have already working properly. This would include expediting the Type 45 Destroyer propulsion improvement programme. Sorting out Ajax. Upgrading the Typhoon fleet. And Ensuring we have sufficient spares for key equipment types.
2/12

The 2nd priority is to reconsider cuts imposed by the IR and DCP. In particular, the time may have come to increase headcount across the services. The RN and RAF would benefit from 3K-5K extra personnel each, while the Army could field two divisions instead of one with 90K.
3/12

Read 12 tweets

Nicholas Drummond

@nicholadrummond

Feb 25

https://twitter.com/cliffordlevy/status/1497265307571965957

Some commentators are saying that what began as a war of choice has now become a war of survival for Putin. I agree. If his assault grinds to halt, how long before his position in Moscow becomes untenable? And how far will he go as his desperation grows?
1

https://twitter.com/cliffordlevy/status/1497265307571965957

A fierce insurgency is a more likely scenario, but either way, a costly stalemate and tougher sanctions biting ordinary Russians hard, there's a chance that Putin's inner circle will remove him from power. It's a question of time with Ukraine inflicting as much pain as it can.
2

The danger of a coup in Russia is Putin being replaced by someone who is even worse. The problem is his inner circle were all hand-picked by him. So they're like to be strict adherents to the cause. But finding someone may be a risk worth taking and a catalyst for change.
3

Read 8 tweets

Nicholas Drummond

@nicholadrummond

Feb 22

Given a deteriorating relationship with Russia and Putin’s desire to enlarge his empire, we are inevitably returning to a Cold War posture where NATO forces in Europe will need to pre-positioned to prevent future land grabs.
1
ft.com/content/f3aaf2…

Hard power is necessary to establish a clear red line, which if crossed, marks the difference between peace and conflict. This is an antiquated concept, but it kept the peace in Europe for 50+ years or until Putin came to power.
2

This means that the UK’s 2021 Integrated Review, Defence Command Paper and Future Soldier Guide are already out-of-date. This gives us an opportunity to correct the compromised structure imposed upon the Army by further cost savings.
3

Read 20 tweets

Nicholas Drummond

@nicholadrummond

Jan 27

CAN AN 8X8 BE AN IFV? (Thread)
Interesting conversation with a US Army 2-star at #IAV2022 about the role of the turreted Stryker Dragoon. I asked whether it's an IFV and, if so, can be used to enable infantry to dismount on the objective?
(1 of 7)

The answer depends on the threat. If you know your enemy is equipped with weapons designed to defeat armour, infantry will dismount early and conduct the final assault on foot, while their Strykers move to the best possible position from which to provide fire support.
(2 of 7)

However, if an enemy only has light weapons, and assuming the terrain allows it, you might manoeuvre right onto an objective, The Stryker's speed and agility is a form of protection in itself and can enable an extremely rapid assault, especially in urban situations.
(3 of 7)

Read 7 tweets

Nicholas Drummond

@nicholadrummond

Jan 13

ARMY 2025 (Thread)
The Army’s Future Soldier Guide has been described as the most far reaching transformation of the Army in a generation. After more than 12 years of austerity, It's a much needed step in the right direction.
1/25

By way of introduction, there are 4 implicit beliefs that underpin not only the Army’s future structure, but UK defence as a whole. First, as an island nation, Britain is dependent on its Navy and Air Force, and therefore needs to prioritise them above its peacetime Army.
2/25

Second, as a nuclear power, Britain’s ballistic missile submarine fleet is the ultimate guarantor of UK security, but if we don’t maintain our conventional forces at a reasonable level, there is a risk of needing to resort to nuclear weapons far sooner than we might want.
3/25

Read 26 tweets

Nicholas Drummond

@nicholadrummond

Sep 19, 2021

@navalgroup

Five points to make about AUKUS submarine deal:
1️⃣ If something isn’t working (@navalgroup) you don’t terminate an agreement until you’ve secured a new one. Otherwise you weaken your negotiating position. This isn’t duplicitous and it’s nothing personal. It’s just business.

2️⃣ AUKUS may signify the beginning of a new global alliance beyond NATO. Given strong bonds and mutual interests, the USA, Australia & UK were a strong foundation for this. But it doesn’t exclude other nations from joining subsequently or mean that NATO is now defunct

3️⃣ France may now choose to leave NATO or propose a new European defence alliance in its place. This could cause NATO to fracture, but could backfire spectacularly if Germany & other EU states prefer the status quo, France could find itself isolated & outside Article 5 protection

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