Thread by @nicholadrummond

A large number of Conservative MPs are pressuring Boris Johnson to substantially increase UK Defence spending. This is a welcome move. But if extra investment comes, I would expect it to go towards the Royal Navy and RAF before the Army. So what would be the priorities?
1/12

The first priority is to get everything we have already working properly. This would include expediting the Type 45 Destroyer propulsion improvement programme. Sorting out Ajax. Upgrading the Typhoon fleet. And Ensuring we have sufficient spares for key equipment types.
2/12

The 2nd priority is to reconsider cuts imposed by the IR and DCP. In particular, the time may have come to increase headcount across the services. The RN and RAF would benefit from 3K-5K extra personnel each, while the Army could field two divisions instead of one with 90K.
3/12

The RN needs to boost its ASW credentials, so a couple of extra Type 26 frigates would be helpful. Accelerating the AUKUS attack submarine programme in partnership with the USA and Australia would also be a good move. Extra ships would require additional RFA sustainment.
4/12

For the RAF, additional F-35Bs are already planned, but increasing numbers closer to the original total of 138 would be great. For the E7 Wedgetail AEW&C aircraft, 5 instead of 3 would be more credible, while 12 P8 Poseidon MPAs instead of 9 is desirable.
5/12

Persistent rumours suggest the RAF wants the F-35A. With Tempest still a long way off this could make sense, because it's all about what can be delivered now, not in 10 years time. There's talk of buying further A400Ms. A fleet of 30 would compensate for the loss of C-130J.
6/12

Of course, it may be simpler to retain the C-130J. The US Air Force may decide to restart C-17 production. If it does, I'd prioritise an extra 4 of these over another 8 A400Ms. When it comes to RAF airfield defence, SkySabre GBAD is needed to protect them.
7/12

Finally, we come to the Army. Before buying any new kit or generating new combat units, we should prioritise logistics and support elements so that more of our existing brigades become deployable. Our principal investment should be in additional deep fires and air defence.
8/12

Assuming extra headcount, we should then restore infantry mass through 33 regular battalions with 650-700 soldiers in each. We should make the Regular Army deployable without relying on the Army Reserve, reinstating the latter as a Home Defence and reinforcement force.
9/12

C4I and ISTAR projects are ongoing, but we need to turbocharge these ensuring that an evolved digital backbone, which will establish fully networked combat formations, comes online via an accelerated roll-out.
10/12

We should invest in additional armoured vehicles, including more Boxers, a new medium tracked platform to replace Warrior and FV432, and upgrade a larger number of Challenger MBTs. We should accelerate MRVP and FATV. If there's money left, start looking at automation tech.
10/12

Investment in the above capabilities would easily absorb an additional 1% of GDP, build on what is already a robust foundation and send a clear signal not only to Putin, but also to China. Ultimately, spending to deter is always less expensive than spending to counter.
12/12