Thread by @dweldredge

🧵1/ There's something weird about #NoFlyZones. Opponents to setting one up over Ukraine say that #NATO would have to implement it, which would mean shooting down Russian planes, which means #WW3.

2/ But here's the thing: In effect #NATO *already has* a #NoFlyZone--over NATO countries. If #Russian military aircraft violate it, we would see it as a hostile act, and shoot the aircraft down. (Or at best, give them a military escort out of NATO airspace--more on that later)

3/ A key to a #NoFlyZoneOverUkraine that people seem to be missing is this: while yes, #NATO would be obliged to shoot down violators, Russian aircraft would have to violate the airspace FIRST. NATO and the international community recognize #Ukraine as a sovereign nation.

4/ #Ukraine has the right to ask other nations to implement a #NoFlyZone, and they have done so. NATO implementing an NFZ is NOT a provocation, nor is it an escalation. #Russia VIOLATING a #NoFlyZone is a provocation and an escalation, in the same way as #Russia violating

5/ #NATO airspace is a provocation & escalation. No one seems to be complaining that #NATO keeping its own airspace inviolate is somehow a provocation, so why should #NATO implementing a NFZ upon explicit invitation by a sovereign nation be considered a provocation or escalation?

6/ By refusing to act, #NATO and the West are ceding both the initiative and the narrative to #Russia. In effect, the West is declaring that defending #Ukraine from Russian aggression is a provocation, whereas Russia invading Ukraine is not.

7/ Recent events have emphasized this. While #NATO does nothing but watch Russia commit war crimes by deliberately bombing civilian targets & attacking nuclear power plants, it is implicitly stating that NATO intervention is a provocation but Russia committing war crimes is not.

8/ The media has stated that the West & more importantly #Ukraine is winning the PR war. But are they really? #Russia is the sole dictator of the terms of this war and how it is being fought. Sanctions have not changed that fact (yet).

9/ For as long as #NATO refuses to act, #Russia will control the narrative.

By publicly declaring a #NoFlyZone at #Ukraine's request, #NATO can set a date for implementation. Any Russian aircraft violating the NFZ after the deadline is a provocation by #Russia, NOT NATO.

10/ How is this scenario any different from #Russia violating #NATO airspace directly? In BOTH cases the provocation is Russia's and Russia's alone. Russia knows better (so far) than to violate NATO airspace, so they should know better than to violate an NFZ.

11/ If the argument against a #NoFlyZone is that #Russia wouldn't care and would violate it, then that argument can be applied to #NATO airspace too. #Russia would violate whatever airspace it wants to regardless.

12/ But #Russia's actions say otherwise--they don't violate #NATO airspace, so they likely would not violate a #NoFlyZone either. "But we can't take that risk!" goes the opposition argument. The reality is that we're *already* taking that risk--with #NATO airspace.

13/ But, but, if a #NoFlyZone is *still* too scary to contemplate, notwithstanding our already having them, here is a compromise:

An #AirspaceControlZone.

14/ Rather than requiring #NATO to shoot down violators immediately upon violation, #NATO would move to *escort* the violator out of the controlled airspace, which is to say, Ukrainian airspace. If the violator engages in a hostile act while in the #AirspaceControlZone, such as

15/ engaging the #NATO aircraft, attacking a ground target within #Ukraine, or refusing to turn around and leave the zone, THEN it will be fired upon.

The compromise of an #AirspaceControlZone gives #NATO some wiggle room, much in the same way as JFK put a "Quarantine" around

16/ Cuba instead of a blockade during the Cuban Missile Crisis, which would have been an explicit act of war. (Aside: if you think we're not in a crisis of the the magnitude of the Cuban Missile Crisis yet, you haven't been paying attention).

17/ In any event, if you think #Putin wouldn't care about these legal niceties, see my other thread. The same logic applies.

https://twitter.com/dweldredge/status/1499505237996015621?s=20&t=9Mw_vX2XbmG4D9jZfWP8lg

18/ So far I have seen one side demanding a #NoFlyZone to defend #Ukraine, and the other side refusing to even consider one, on the ground that it would inevitably mean nuclear confrontation. What I *haven't* seen is many people trying to come up with middle ground options.

19/ There MUST be a way to thread the needle between inaction that is tantamount to complicity in genocide and the horror of nuclear war. We'd better come up with a course of action soon, otherwise we will let #Putin decide the fate of #Ukraine and the world for us. /end