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Franz-Stefan Gady Profile picture
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Mar 6 • 11 tweets • 4 min read
Brief summary of the military situation in Ukraine (March 6) 👇🧵
The situation along all fronts appears to be relatively stable.

No major 🇷🇺 offensive ops. in past 24 hrs; 🇺🇦 forces have held the line, fought delaying actions, a. counterattacked when opportune.

However...
Situation in Donbas (East); Mariupol (South) remains critical; a major attack on Mykolaiv is about to happen.

🇷🇺 forces are regrouping and consolidating; logistics remains a major problems.

(map by @TheStudyofWar provides a good overview of the situation AFAIK)
Note: 🇷🇺 forces have made some gains in the Donbas region. I see a growing risk in the bulk of 🇺🇦 forces along/around the line of contact being cut off by Russian advances in the Northeast and Southeast before they can reach the Dnpr.
Russian forces are reportedly still taking heavy casualties throughout 🇺🇦. 🇷🇺equipment losses suffered in Ukraine are exceeding 700. Just to reiterate: With manpower losses in the 1000s this is slowly becoming unsustainable. oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack…
Russian Aerospace Forces reportedly lost ten aircraft/ helicopters alone in past 24 hours. Airspace remains contested as🇷🇺 is stepping up close-air-support.
I remain uncertain about status of Ukrainian air force. 🇺🇦air defenses remain in place preventing Russian aircraft from bombing at lower altitudes in some instances or switching to night ops. Result: more indiscriminate bombardments and collateral damage.

A note on the (apparently failed) humanitarian corridors: 🇷🇺 forces still seek to avoid urban combat and want to rely on ground-based fires to break 🇺🇦 defenders morale. This means it is in their interest to allow civilians as possible to leave urban centers.
Failure of the corridors could be due to many factors (eg, local commanders were not properly informed). As @WarintheFuture explains in this thread main 🇷🇺 objective remains capture of Kyiv. (Destruction of 🇺🇦 forces outside capital is 1 way to get there.)
War is a dialectical competition.
One note on electronic warfare (EW): 🇺🇦 appears to have drawn many lessons from countering 🇷🇺electronic warfare (EW) assets/ops in and around the Donbas region in past years and is putting it to good use now, while 🇷🇺 EW ops have been much below expectations/finesse.
Last: This war so far has also dispelling with some alleged myths re. 🇷🇺 kill-chains in 2014/15.

Please read this piece by @AdrianBonenber1 to get a sense where some of us analysts took away the wrong lessons from 🇷🇺mil. ops during 1st invasion of 🇺🇦. 7969.home.blog/2020/12/02/the…

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Franz-Stefan Gady Profile picture
Mar 8
Short summary of the military situation in Ukraine (March 8) 👇🧵

Nearly 100 % of the Russian combat force prestaged at the Ukrainian border is now committed to the fight in Ukraine (per US DoD).

🇷🇺 forces are preparing for next phase of ground offensives across 🇺🇦.
Russians are still regrouping/replenishing. No large-scale offensive ops in 24 hours (that we know of) despite fighting on all fronts--especially in North around Kyiv--where 🇷🇺 is massing its forces (near Irpin) for an eventual assault with new units (eg, Chechens) arriving.
Russian forces🇷🇺 made some gain gains in North, Northeast, South and East; a small 🇷🇺 attack against Mykolayiv airport failed; 🇺🇦 conducted at least one successful counterattack near Mariupol in Southeast. 🇷🇺 forces from Crimea and Donbas have linked up.
(map:@Militarylandnet) Image
Read 11 tweets
Franz-Stefan Gady Profile picture
Mar 7
Fascinating piece. Two weeks prior to the start of the war, Marine Corps University ran an 4-day wargame to simulate the first several days of a 🇷🇺 invasion of 🇺🇦. Current Russian offensive is playing out in ways eerily similar to the game.
warontherocks.com/2022/03/the-wa… @WarOnTheRocks
Interesting section on 🇺🇦 counterattacks and attrition of Ukrainian maneuver formations: "The Ukrainian commander, in the wargame, decided to send three brigades from the city to counterattack into the flank of Russian armored forces."
"This led to a major engagement about 40 kilometers northwest of Kharkiv against the Russian 27th Guards Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade. In the ensuing battle, both the 27th SMRB and the Ukrainian 92nd Mechanized Brigade were destroyed."
Read 4 tweets
Franz-Stefan Gady Profile picture
Mar 7
“In less than a week, the United States and NATO have pushed more than 17,000 antitank weapons, including Javelin missiles, over the borders of Poland and Romania, unloading them from giant military cargo planes so they can make the trip by land to Kyiv..” nytimes.com/2022/03/06/us/…
The “resupply effort faces stiff logistical and operational challenges.
‘The window for doing easy stuff to help the Ukrainians has closed,’ said Maj. Gen. Michael S. Repass, a former commander of U.S. Special Operations forces in Europe.”
“Hidden away on bases around Eastern Europe, forces from United States Cyber Command known as “cybermission teams’ are in place to interfere with Russia’s digital attacks and communications — but measuring their success rate is difficult, officials say.”
Read 4 tweets
Franz-Stefan Gady Profile picture
Mar 7
Brief summary of the military situation in Ukraine (March 7) 👇🧵

Again, no major 🇷🇺 offensive ops. in past 24 hrs; 🇷🇺 forces appear to be regrouping and getting re-supplied while preparing new offensives in North, South, East.

Main 🇷🇺objective remains Kyiv.
Russian forces🇷🇺 made gain gains in the South (Tokmak); moving toward Voznesensk; new offensive against Yuzhnoukrainsk a./or Mykolaiv/Odessa expected. Unclear how much longer Mariupol can hold out.

(Map: Rochan Consulting) Image
North: Expect renewed efforts to fully envelop Kyiv, Sumy and Kharkiv in days ahead.
Read 15 tweets
Franz-Stefan Gady Profile picture
Mar 5
Short summary of the military situation in Ukraine (March 5) 👇🧵

This by @konrad_muzyka captures the current state of affairs quite accurately IMO.

🇷🇺 forces continue to advance; 🇺🇦situation in Donbas (East); Mariupol (South) is critical; expect major attack on Mykolaiv.
Situation in the South remains by and large unchanged from yesterday. Russian forces appear to be massing for an attack on Mykolaiv. They will likely also be moving on Odessa in coming days.
One major question is whether Russian supply situation will improve with capture of Kherson in the South. (ThereRussian supply convoys are still getting ambushed regularly by 🇺🇦 forces.)
Read 13 tweets
Franz-Stefan Gady Profile picture
Mar 4
Short summary of the military situation in Ukraine (March 4) 👇🧵

🇷🇺 forces are advancing in the South and East; their advance in the North is slow (northeast) and stalled in some sectors; no large-scale ground assault on Kharkiv, instead heavy bombardment.
In the South, 🇷🇺 troops are steadily advancing (reports of engagements in/near Voznesensk). Unclear where the main 🇷🇺 effort North of Dnpr river is. 🇺🇦 forces are fighting orderly retreats/conduct counterattacks, but cannot hold their ground.
(map per militaryland.net)
Just a quick note on the importance of the fall of Kherson in the South: This opens up large chunks of the Dnpr for military operations. 🇷🇺 can now more actively deploy its Black Sea Fleet to attack cities, use it for logistical support ops, and split 🇺🇦 in two.
Read 15 tweets

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