Share this page!

Franz-Stefan Gady Profile picture
Twitter logo
Mar 5 • 13 tweets • 4 min read
Short summary of the military situation in Ukraine (March 5) 👇🧵

This by @konrad_muzyka captures the current state of affairs quite accurately IMO.

🇷🇺 forces continue to advance; 🇺🇦situation in Donbas (East); Mariupol (South) is critical; expect major attack on Mykolaiv.
Situation in the South remains by and large unchanged from yesterday. Russian forces appear to be massing for an attack on Mykolaiv. They will likely also be moving on Odessa in coming days.
One major question is whether Russian supply situation will improve with capture of Kherson in the South. (ThereRussian supply convoys are still getting ambushed regularly by 🇺🇦 forces.)
Russian forces are reportedly taking heavy casualties throughout the country. 🇷🇺equipment losses suffered in Ukraine are exceeding 600. With manpower losses in the 1000s this is slowly becoming unsustainable. oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack…
There are various signs that 🇷🇺 forces are adapting. E.g., increasing reports of Russian forces practicing rudimentary combined arms maneuvers. 👇
Deleted a tweet on this yesterday. 🇺🇦 air power suffered heavy losses from what I can tell. Also, "available" does not mean that 🇺🇦 aircraft will be used given 🇷🇺 air defenses/bombed runways etc. I'd be very careful with making broad judgements from this.
Airspace over Ukraine remains heavier contested than I expected. Unclear why 🇷🇺 Russia is not committing more air power to the fight. Various explanations are floating around but too early to make firm judgements.

One thing that is clear is that 🇷🇺 aerospace forces lack a strong battle damage assessment capability. This piece explores some of the hypotheses put forward about the relatively weak performance of the service. rusi.org/explore-our-re…
🇺🇦 forces appear to be performing well on the electronic warfare front. Lack of 🇷🇺communications security is still something I would have not predicted prior to the invasion. Points to larger 🇷🇺deficits operating in the entire electromagnetic spectrum.
Summary🇷🇺: forces continue to advance; their losses are reaching a level where this campaign as it is cannot be sustained for months but rather a few weeks. Major adjustments will be necessary all of which will make 🇷🇺 logistical issues even more problematic.
🇷🇺troop morale remains a key determined in the outcome of this campaign. Hesitant to make any judgements on it, however, given that we are being floated with quite effective 🇺🇦 information ops.
Summary🇺🇦: forces have a high-fighting morale, various counterattacks are succeeding; air defenses still active, however, the military situation is the Donbass and in parts of the South can deteriorate quickly.
Addendum: this is likely setting the stage for heavier bombardments of urban centers by the Russians; 🇷🇺 still seek to avoid large-scale urban combat.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Franz-Stefan Gady

Franz-Stefan Gady Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @HoansSolo

Franz-Stefan Gady Profile picture
Mar 7
Brief summary of the military situation in Ukraine (March 7) 👇🧵

Again, no major 🇷🇺 offensive ops. in past 24 hrs; 🇷🇺 forces appear to be regrouping and getting re-supplied while preparing new offensives in North, South, East.

Main 🇷🇺objective remains Kyiv.
Russian forces🇷🇺 made gain gains in the South (Tokmak); moving toward Voznesensk; new offensive against Yuzhnoukrainsk a./or Mykolaiv/Odessa expected. Unclear how much longer Mariupol can hold out.

(Map: Rochan Consulting) Image
North: Expect renewed efforts to fully envelop Kyiv, Sumy and Kharkiv in days ahead.
Read 13 tweets
Franz-Stefan Gady Profile picture
Mar 6
Brief summary of the military situation in Ukraine (March 6) 👇🧵
The situation along all fronts appears to be relatively stable.

No major 🇷🇺 offensive ops. in past 24 hrs; 🇺🇦 forces have held the line, fought delaying actions, a. counterattacked when opportune.

However...
Situation in Donbas (East); Mariupol (South) remains critical; a major attack on Mykolaiv is about to happen.

🇷🇺 forces are regrouping and consolidating; logistics remains a major problems.

(map by @TheStudyofWar provides a good overview of the situation AFAIK) Image
Note: 🇷🇺 forces have made some gains in the Donbas region. I see a growing risk in the bulk of 🇺🇦 forces along/around the line of contact being cut off by Russian advances in the Northeast and Southeast before they can reach the Dnpr. Image
Read 8 tweets
Franz-Stefan Gady Profile picture
Mar 4
Short summary of the military situation in Ukraine (March 4) 👇🧵

🇷🇺 forces are advancing in the South and East; their advance in the North is slow (northeast) and stalled in some sectors; no large-scale ground assault on Kharkiv, instead heavy bombardment.
In the South, 🇷🇺 troops are steadily advancing (reports of engagements in/near Voznesensk). Unclear where the main 🇷🇺 effort North of Dnpr river is. 🇺🇦 forces are fighting orderly retreats/conduct counterattacks, but cannot hold their ground.
(map per militaryland.net)
Just a quick note on the importance of the fall of Kherson in the South: This opens up large chunks of the Dnpr for military operations. 🇷🇺 can now more actively deploy its Black Sea Fleet to attack cities, use it for logistical support ops, and split 🇺🇦 in two.
Read 15 tweets
Franz-Stefan Gady Profile picture
Mar 3
Brief summary of the military situation in Ukraine (March 3) 👇🧵

Russia has now moved the bulk of forces it had pre-staged along the 🇺🇦 border into Ukraine (per US DoD).

Still unclear what % of 🇷🇺 forces have been committed to combat.
This map captures the situation quite accurately IMO.

🇷🇺s have taken their first regional capital in the South (Kherson);🇺🇦 counterattacks have reportedly pushed 🇷🇺 forces out of Mykolaiv.

Watch out of for 🇷🇺breakthroughs in Donbas; overall situation in Mariupol is grave.
🇷🇺 are continuing their advance in the South while regrouping/adapting. Logistical issues persist with 🇷🇺supply convoys coming under repeated 🇺🇦 attacks. Also, there has been uptick in the Russian use of air power (video: strikes of Su-25s outside Kyiv)
Read 12 tweets
Franz-Stefan Gady Profile picture
Mar 2
Short summary of the military situation in Ukraine (March 2) 👇🧵
~80 percent of the combat power that 🇷🇺 had pre-deployed along the 🇺🇦 has now entered the country (per US DoD). Overall operational picture has seen some change over the past 24 hours (caveat: the fog of war).
🇷🇺 forces are still in the process of regrouping, getting re-supplied, a. adapting. There is little evidence of BTGs operating as whole units; Russian air power is still holding back it seems; Reports of low 🇷🇺morale--especially among conscripts--could turn into a real problem.
🇷🇺 forces continue to suffer from poor logistics (food, fuel and even occasional ammo shortages). This will likely be made be worse once BTGs/other 🇷🇺 formations begin conducting combined arms maneuvers (I saw no signs for such a switch just yet) on a large-scale.
Read 13 tweets
Franz-Stefan Gady Profile picture
Mar 1
Short summary of the military situation in Ukraine 👇🧵
Russia has moved around 75% of its forces it had previously deployed along the U. borders into 🇺🇦 (per US DoD). Appears that only a fraction of these have been engaged in combat yet.🇷🇺 forces are massing for assault on Kyiv.
🇷🇺 forces are in the process of regrouping, getting re-supplied, a. adapting to 🇺🇦 attacks. While 🇷🇺 are still committing tactical blunders, there are signs emerging that 🇷🇺 have abandoned their "mad dashes" to occupy key territory without support and coordinate better.
Expect to see more 🇷🇺combined arms maneuver/combat in coming days; heavier reliance on ground-based fires/more use of airpower. As others have pointed out, we will likely see BTGs fighting as whole units. Alas, this means we are entering a much deadlier phase of the conflict.
Read 9 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Like this author's thread?

Get emails when @HoansSolo has new unrolls!

Check out other threads from @HoansSolo!

Read all threads by @HoansSolo

:(