Thread by @HoansSolo

Short summary of the military situation in Ukraine (March 4) 👇🧵

🇷🇺 forces are advancing in the South and East; their advance in the North is slow (northeast) and stalled in some sectors; no large-scale ground assault on Kharkiv, instead heavy bombardment.

In the South, 🇷🇺 troops are steadily advancing (reports of engagements in/near Voznesensk). Unclear where the main 🇷🇺 effort North of Dnpr river is. 🇺🇦 forces are fighting orderly retreats/conduct counterattacks, but cannot hold their ground.
(map per militaryland.net)

Just a quick note on the importance of the fall of Kherson in the South: This opens up large chunks of the Dnpr for military operations. 🇷🇺 can now more actively deploy its Black Sea Fleet to attack cities, use it for logistical support ops, and split 🇺🇦 in two.

This article does a good job summarizing its strategic importance, although I don't agree with all that's in there. (forwarded to me by my colleague Markus Reisner). jpost.com/international/…

In the South, special attention should to be paid Mykolaiv and to Odessa in coming days; Siege of Mariupol continues with heavy 🇷🇺 shelling of the city.

There has also been a noticeable uptick in 🇷🇺 close air support and little signs of 🇺🇦 airpower.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1499450481319587847?s=20&t=NkElH0qsAW1jcgmjytbl3g

The effectiveness of 🇺🇦 defenses in the North (around Kyiv) tells you something where some of the elite formations of the 🇺🇦 armed forces are principally operating these days.

https://twitter.com/DI_Ukraine/status/1499443606314270720?s=20&t=c24SPpwEpovAbq8HDe9d_Q

Russians will increasingly rely on massed fires by air, as well as rocket and self-propelled artillery. (More than 33 civilians reportedly killed in Chernihiv alone.) Warning: graphic content.

https://twitter.com/InnaSovsun/status/1499455753282899974?s=20&t=ONn3990XZ7lwvfWbHvZN2Q

Russian forces are reportedly taking heavy casualties throughout the country. 🇷🇺equipment losses suffered in Ukraine are approaching 600. oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack… (via @oryxspioenkop)

This assessment still holds today. No indication that BTGs (see slide by Markus Reisner on average BTG structure) have been used. Some indication of 🇷🇺company tactical groups in action.

https://twitter.com/HoansSolo/status/1499261245660217353?s=20&t=CifEMUmOsNYW3cx-c50FHA

This map from @washingtonpost captures Russian advances quite accurately (from the limited operational picture we have; remember the fog of war continues to apply here.) Main 🇷🇺 effort North of Dnpr in South remains unclear to me.

h/t @DanLamothe

No noticeable uptick in 🇷🇺electronic warfare operations and little evidence of cyber (def. happening though). One explanation is that tactical cyber operations in support of kinetic operations (something I do a lot of research on) is very difficult to do.

https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1499136582770733061?s=20&t=8wDFnQIeYx3nSmvpdgtOaA

This assessment still holds re. 🇷🇺 attempts to establish air superiority.

https://twitter.com/HoansSolo/status/1499257287575228416?s=20&t=xmSYk-U2iZ3Qlc_5dXdgBg

🇷🇺 forces continue to have problems securing their rear areas.

Also worth highlighting that a number of high-ranking Russian officers have reportedly been KIA in 🇺🇦. Unclear whether these deaths occurred on the frontline or in rear areas. newsweek.com/russia-ukraine…

🇷🇺 main objective remains destruction of bulk of 🇺🇦 forces via deep operations (while seeking to avoid urban combat.) 🇺🇦 fighting morale remains high; conflicting reports on 🇷🇺 morale (treat any reports on this with extreme caution given info warfare operations by both sides.)

This general summary from yesterday still holds IMO. Last, as expected, Russians are increasingly relying on ground-based fires to break 🇺🇦 resistance a. to get civilians to leave cities (safe corridors for their departure are reportedly being discussed).

https://twitter.com/HoansSolo/status/1499263346570194944?s=20&t=xmSYk-U2iZ3Qlc_5dXdgBg