Brief summary of the military situation in Ukraine (March 7) 👇🧵
Again, no major 🇷🇺 offensive ops. in past 24 hrs; 🇷🇺 forces appear to be regrouping and getting re-supplied while preparing new offensives in North, South, East.
Main 🇷🇺objective remains Kyiv.
Again, no major 🇷🇺 offensive ops. in past 24 hrs; 🇷🇺 forces appear to be regrouping and getting re-supplied while preparing new offensives in North, South, East.
Main 🇷🇺objective remains Kyiv.
Russian forces🇷🇺 made gain gains in the South (Tokmak); moving toward Voznesensk; new offensive against Yuzhnoukrainsk a./or Mykolaiv/Odessa expected. Unclear how much longer Mariupol can hold out.
(Map: Rochan Consulting)
(Map: Rochan Consulting)
North: Expect renewed efforts to fully envelop Kyiv, Sumy and Kharkiv in days ahead.
East: No major 🇷🇺 breakthroughs. Situation remains critical. Continuing risk that the bulk of 🇺🇦 forces along/around the line of contact will be being cut off by Russian advances in the Northeast and Southeast before they can reach the Dnpr.
(map: militaryland.net)
(map: militaryland.net)
There has been a noticeable uptick in the use of Russian air power (and artillery) over the last few days. More CAS/air combat sorties. Also, 🇷🇺 forces continue to hit 🇺🇦 airfields in throughout the country including in the West.
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1500558855348105223?s=20&t=2GELXkKwoQqv01nC3VCLWA
One possible reason for stepped up attacks on Western airfields/airports across the country is to prevent the deployment of new fighter jets. (I still have doubts about the military/operational value of doing so.)
politico.eu/article/us-sec…
politico.eu/article/us-sec…
Russian are using firepower more indiscriminately.
🇷🇺 forces have not depleted their stock of precision-guided munitions. However, there are signs that they switching to munitions with more limited range and accuracy.
🇷🇺 forces have not depleted their stock of precision-guided munitions. However, there are signs that they switching to munitions with more limited range and accuracy.
https://twitter.com/CITeam_en/status/1500475853490343936?s=20&t=9Y98t8zWSfTYcBAVrzNOHg
There have also been unconfirmed reports that Russia is activating its reserves. According to 🇺🇦 General Staff, 🇷🇺 have used most of their operational reserve and are moving new troops in from Southern/Eastern military districts. (All of this is unconfirmed.)
🇷🇺major equipment losses suffered in Ukraine are exceeding 840. Just to reiterate: With manpower losses in the 1000s this is slowly becoming an unsustainable situation for 🇷🇺.
oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack…
oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack…
This still holds.
https://twitter.com/HoansSolo/status/1500433766673747968?s=20&t=GFZH5Pse8Wc523OjluEI4A
Summary🇷🇺: forces will continue to advance; however, their losses are reaching a level where this campaign as it is cannot be sustained for months but rather a few weeks. Major adjustments will be necessary all of which will make 🇷🇺 logistical issues likely more problematic.
Summary🇺🇦: forces continue to have high-fighting morale, various counterattacks are succeeding; air defenses still active; however, the military situation is the Donbass and in parts of the South (Mariupol) can deteriorate quickly.
Linking this good thread by @WarintheFuture to shed light on the strategic importance of the South.
https://twitter.com/WarintheFuture/status/1500637716601458688?s=20&t=GFZH5Pse8Wc523OjluEI4A
Addendum: bulk of 🇷🇺 forces have not much experience in urban combat. A few hundred Syrian fighters will not make much of a difference tactically. wsj.com/articles/russi…
“An American assessment indicates that Russia, which has been operating inside Syria since 2015, has in recent days been recruiting fighters from there, hoping their expertise in urban combat can help take Kyiv and deal a devastating blow…”
*that is supplying combat aircraft to Ukraine.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
