Fascinating piece. Two weeks prior to the start of the war, Marine Corps University ran an 4-day wargame to simulate the first several days of a 🇷🇺 invasion of 🇺🇦. Current Russian offensive is playing out in ways eerily similar to the game. warontherocks.com/2022/03/the-wa…@WarOnTheRocks
Interesting section on 🇺🇦 counterattacks and attrition of Ukrainian maneuver formations: "The Ukrainian commander, in the wargame, decided to send three brigades from the city to counterattack into the flank of Russian armored forces."
"This led to a major engagement about 40 kilometers northwest of Kharkiv against the Russian 27th Guards Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade. In the ensuing battle, both the 27th SMRB and the Ukrainian 92nd Mechanized Brigade were destroyed."
💯: "A post game analysis decided that it would have been better to keep the Ukrainian force in the city per the original plan and turn Kharkiv into a fortress city."
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Short summary of the military situation in Ukraine (March 9) 👇🧵
🇷🇺 forces continue to advance in South a. North.
-Near Hostomel Airport to the West
-Near Cherniv (heavy 🇺🇦resistance)
-With a large armored force near Sumy pushing to Kyiv from the East. (map @JanesINTEL)
Main 🇷🇺military objective remains Kyiv.
In the South, there are attempts to encircle Mykolaiv (some 🇷🇺 have bypassed it); new push on Zaporizhya.
Mariupol has been encircled; 🇷🇺 forces from Crimea and Donbas linked up.
1st humanitarian corridor has begun to work in Sumy.
The humanitarian corridors serve a clear military purpose for Russia: it empties the cities of civilians a. will allow even more indiscriminate bombing in the weeks ahead. This by @SpencerGuard on the reason why civilian areas are being bombed is spot on.
Short summary of the military situation in Ukraine (March 8) 👇🧵
Nearly 100 % of the Russian combat force prestaged at the Ukrainian border is now committed to the fight in Ukraine (per US DoD).
🇷🇺 forces are preparing for next phase of ground offensives across 🇺🇦.
Russians are still regrouping/replenishing. No large-scale offensive ops in 24 hours (that we know of) despite fighting on all fronts--especially in North around Kyiv--where 🇷🇺 is massing its forces (near Irpin) for an eventual assault with new units (eg, Chechens) arriving.
Russian forces🇷🇺 made some gain gains in North, Northeast, South and East; a small 🇷🇺 attack against Mykolayiv airport failed; 🇺🇦 conducted at least one successful counterattack near Mariupol in Southeast. 🇷🇺 forces from Crimea and Donbas have linked up.
(map:@Militarylandnet)
“In less than a week, the United States and NATO have pushed more than 17,000 antitank weapons, including Javelin missiles, over the borders of Poland and Romania, unloading them from giant military cargo planes so they can make the trip by land to Kyiv..” nytimes.com/2022/03/06/us/…
The “resupply effort faces stiff logistical and operational challenges.
‘The window for doing easy stuff to help the Ukrainians has closed,’ said Maj. Gen. Michael S. Repass, a former commander of U.S. Special Operations forces in Europe.”
“Hidden away on bases around Eastern Europe, forces from United States Cyber Command known as “cybermission teams’ are in place to interfere with Russia’s digital attacks and communications — but measuring their success rate is difficult, officials say.”
Brief summary of the military situation in Ukraine (March 7) 👇🧵
Again, no major 🇷🇺 offensive ops. in past 24 hrs; 🇷🇺 forces appear to be regrouping and getting re-supplied while preparing new offensives in North, South, East.
Main 🇷🇺objective remains Kyiv.
Russian forces🇷🇺 made gain gains in the South (Tokmak); moving toward Voznesensk; new offensive against Yuzhnoukrainsk a./or Mykolaiv/Odessa expected. Unclear how much longer Mariupol can hold out.
(Map: Rochan Consulting)
North: Expect renewed efforts to fully envelop Kyiv, Sumy and Kharkiv in days ahead.
Brief summary of the military situation in Ukraine (March 6) 👇🧵
The situation along all fronts appears to be relatively stable.
No major 🇷🇺 offensive ops. in past 24 hrs; 🇺🇦 forces have held the line, fought delaying actions, a. counterattacked when opportune.
However...
Situation in Donbas (East); Mariupol (South) remains critical; a major attack on Mykolaiv is about to happen.
🇷🇺 forces are regrouping and consolidating; logistics remains a major problems.
(map by @TheStudyofWar provides a good overview of the situation AFAIK)
Note: 🇷🇺 forces have made some gains in the Donbas region. I see a growing risk in the bulk of 🇺🇦 forces along/around the line of contact being cut off by Russian advances in the Northeast and Southeast before they can reach the Dnpr.
Short summary of the military situation in Ukraine (March 5) 👇🧵
This by @konrad_muzyka captures the current state of affairs quite accurately IMO.
🇷🇺 forces continue to advance; 🇺🇦situation in Donbas (East); Mariupol (South) is critical; expect major attack on Mykolaiv.
Situation in the South remains by and large unchanged from yesterday. Russian forces appear to be massing for an attack on Mykolaiv. They will likely also be moving on Odessa in coming days.
One major question is whether Russian supply situation will improve with capture of Kherson in the South. (ThereRussian supply convoys are still getting ambushed regularly by 🇺🇦 forces.)