Distance from camera to Kharkiv airfield is about 6 km.
Short range AD probably set up in this wooded area near the airfield, would have been near-impossible to locate precisely ahead of time. Good but obvious cover.
But RuAF went in anyways.
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First, I'd like to make the distinction that I do not know if an amphibious assault would be all one site, or whether the airborne would support or go independently. This is just where I'd put forces if it were one landing site.
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Currently, all of the 197th Assault Ship Brigade is in the Black Sea. Operational status for 2 are questionable. Yamal was under repairs for a collision and Filchenkov hasn't been seen active since 2019. Assuming 5 Alligator or Ropucha LSTs.
Russian Air Force 🇷🇺 Eastern Military District Su-25SMs from (likely) 18th Guards Assault Aviation Regiment, Chernigovka Airbase, Primorsky Krai moved to airfields in 🇧🇾 Belarus.
In the video in the link, I'm able to jot down some nose and registration numbers. 10 Su-25s with several from 18 Shturmovik Av Regt, seemingly confirming the movement. tvzvezda.ru/news/202225249…
On the evening of November 19 2021, RCH8194, C-17A 08-8194, lifted from Fort Campbell. It was 6:40PM (2340Z). It probably didn't make much difference to anyone in the area. These are common flights. Common enough for flight trackers who watch for this stuff to sometimes miss.
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Within a couple hours, it should have become a little more obvious.
Another C-17A, 00-0184 #AE08BE, was lifting from Fort Campbell around 7PM local, 0000Z, with RCH5E1, C-17A 04-4138 #AE1448, descending for Campbell's Army Airfield.
Something was beginning to move.
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Not much further away to the east at roughly the same time, RCH889, C-17A 06-6157 #AE145B, was lifting out of Fort Bragg/Pope AAF, NC.
At this moment, all aircraft involved had used in part or in whole Mode S to at least partially obfuscate their departures.
Sources (BBC, Pravda, Euroradio) indicate that several airlines are involved, increasing routes to meet an anticipated demand of tourists at discount rates to Minsk. Those involved (but not limited to):
The head of foreign economic activity for Minsk airport indicates that service routes are in the works to open for Kenya, Vietnam, Algeria, Iran, Morocco, Moldova, Qatar, Ethiopia as of early November. belmarket.by/news/2021/11/0…