Thread by @HoansSolo

Short summary of the military situation in Ukraine (March 9) 👇🧵

🇷🇺 forces continue to advance in South a. North.

-Near Hostomel Airport to the West
-Near Cherniv (heavy 🇺🇦resistance)
-With a large armored force near Sumy pushing to Kyiv from the East. (map @JanesINTEL)

Main 🇷🇺military objective remains Kyiv.

In the South, there are attempts to encircle Mykolaiv (some 🇷🇺 have bypassed it); new push on Zaporizhya.
Mariupol has been encircled; 🇷🇺 forces from Crimea and Donbas linked up.

1st humanitarian corridor has begun to work in Sumy.

The humanitarian corridors serve a clear military purpose for Russia: it empties the cities of civilians a. will allow even more indiscriminate bombing in the weeks ahead. This by @SpencerGuard on the reason why civilian areas are being bombed is spot on.

https://twitter.com/SpencerGuard/status/1501350104040542208?s=20&t=2xk-XvZrlKrWNwkEbSJD0A

As a @TheStudyofWar analysis points out in its analysis, some signs of 🇷🇺 Russian manpower shortages for urban combat are emerging. Even heavier reliance on ground-based fires will be be the consequence. understandingwar.org/backgrounder/r…

Unclear how long 🇺🇦 can withstand continued Russian attacks along the entire Southern Front; morale remains high; attacks on Russian supply convoys continue; 🇺🇦 forces continue to counterattack and fight delaying actions; however, there are clear signs of attrition.

One question I have is how much of an operational reserve 🇺🇦 has left. A complete withdrawal west of the Dnpr will sooner or later become an inevitability for Ukrainian mobile reserves. Counterattacks must cause heavy losses on 🇺🇦 side.

There is also an ongoing risk that the bulk of 🇺🇦 forces in the East of the country will be being cut off by Russian advances in the Northeast and Southeast before they can reach the Dnpr.

As expected, Russian forces more and more rely on ground-based fires (rocket/tube artillery/missiles) and air strikes to indiscriminately bomb urban center to break morale.

https://twitter.com/AFPphoto/status/1501211147143237632?s=20&t=3KexZ678wav1WZVDhIrJ6Q

🇷🇺 is expanding its air defense pockets and establishing local air superiority in part of the country. This will diminish impact of remaining 🇺🇦 airpower, especially TB2 (if still operable) somewhat.

https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1501242060778655746?s=20&t=slajoXaoaBkarTMllmNRaw

I remain skeptical of the military value of Mig-29s in this war. Besides the question whether there are actually enough 🇺🇦 pilots to operate these aircraft the 🇺🇦 air force reportedly only operates in the west and the south anymore because of growing strengths of 🇷🇺 air defenses.

Agree with @DAlperovitch here: Russian-made/Soviet-era air defense systems would have much higher military value in this fight.

Besides, Mig-29s, an air superiority fighter, is simply not the type of aircraft 🇺🇦 really needs.

https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1501336482002386948?s=20&t=6fpEZuOLuF8rOkqPH67RUw

There is also more and more evidence of 🇷🇺 moving additional troops and equipment inside the country to the West for eventual deployment in 🇺🇦. Given Russian loss rates in Ukraine, reserves will need to be moved in within a short timespan.

https://twitter.com/MotolkoHelp/status/1501124369317253121?s=20&t=0Lw454tJSyDGj_RGnjDv9A

🇷🇺major equipment losses suffered in Ukraine are exceeding 900. The equipment loss rate appears to have slowed down a bit. Likely due to more combined arms operations and🇷🇺 forces mostly regrouping for larger offensives. oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack…

Last: I'd urge you to read this @WarOnTheRocks piece to get an understanding of 🇷🇺 military logistics a. why we have seen a pattern emerging of a few days of heavy fighting followed by a lull for a few days used by 🇷🇺 for regrouping/getting resupplied. warontherocks.com/2021/11/feedin…