It’s a good idea to provide Ukraine 🇺🇦 with #MiG-29 fighters - they will limit Russia 🇷🇺 bombing innocent civilians.
The decision should not be made in #Warsaw alone - the responsibility lies with #NATO as a whole.
What would it take to get Ukraine those #MIGs? Short 🧵
(1/8)
Supplying Ukraine with #Mig29 will likely be seen by Russia as a significant step up in military help for Ukraine. Russia threatened unspecified retaliation. No one NATO country should be put under pressure to do it alone.
It shouldn't be matter for only bilateral 🇵🇱🇺🇸 conv.
In order to do it well, we need to do it together - as #NATO. All Allies should be heard, and all Allies should stand behind this decision.
(3/8)
U.S. in principle green-lighted the F16 that would back filled the aircrafts sent by other Allies to Ukraine. That's good, but we should see concrete steps on this in the U.S. Congress.
(4/8)
The MIG-29 aircrafts would need to be stripped of NATO-grade encrypted communication equipment. It will also have to be properly painted to serve in Ukrainian air-force.
(5/8)
In order to avoid immediate escalation with Russia, these fighter jets should not be flown from a NATO member airport. There is a need for creative transportation.
(6/8)
Lastly, Poland and other NATO front line states, need a quick air-and-missile defense support from other Allies. The war is closer, and we certainly don't need a "lost" missile here.
(7/8)
Over time, as SecGen @jensstoltenberg said, the NATO force structure needs to adapt to "deterrence by defense" We have a lot of work ahead of us to get there.
(8/8)
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🧵I’m both heartened and worried after just coming back from #Kyiv 🇺🇦, where @gmfus@ua_boell delegation, which I had a honor to lead, meet with key government officials, opposition, think tanks, and civil society. Here are few observations from the past days 👇
There is ZERO desire among Ukrainians to give in to Russian demands. They are determined and defiant. I don’t know what Putin is thinking, but the Ukrainian people are not going to accept a Moscow puppet government in Kyiv. If Putin’s decide to attack, Ukraine will make him pay.
Ukraine will fight, if need be. They don’t expect the West to do it for them - but they rightly expect help - both politically and when it comes to #weapons. Frustration with the #West in #Kyiv varies from moderate to extremely high.
🧵U.S. messaging following the Biden-Putin call is back on track. President Biden’s good phone calls with President Zelenskyy 🇺🇦 and leaders of the Bucharest Nine Eastern Flank NATO Allies went a long way to clarify U.S. position on key principles, formats and next steps👇
In a phone call with President Zelenskyy, Biden made clear his commitment to a principle “no decisions or discussions about Ukraine without Ukraine.” whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/…
In a phone call with Bucharest Nine leaders, Biden stressed the U.S. commitment to consultation with ALL Transatlantic Allies and partners - In fact, excluding the previously floated format of 🇺🇸+4+🇷🇺 consultations. whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/…
🧵President Biden’s statement yesterday about his video meeting with #Putin👇 seemed like a departure from the past weeks of Alliance-focused diplomacy and created very real concerns on #NATO eastern flank. There is number of questions that should be clarified by the U.S. admin:
President Biden spoke of a meeting on Friday that would “discuss the future of Russia’s concerns relative to NATO writ large and whether or not we can work out any accommodations”. • What accommodations could be worked out with Russia that threatens Ukraine with armed invasion?
• Are there Russia’s “concerns relative to #NATO” that the U.S. finds legitimate?
🧵Few observations from #Riga after talking with several senior officials from across the Alliance at the #NATO#ForMin meeting:
• the scale of Russian military build up is unprecedented - this is NOT a repeat of the spring built up. The talk of war in Ukraine is in the air.
• Russia’s ultimate intentions are not clear - but the scale and capabilities that are being prepared would allow it to strike Ukraine from three directions, perhaps including from the north through Belarus.
• The broader strategic community, including think tanks, for the moment deeply underestimates the severity of the situation due to classification of the specific information presented to the Allies.