Thread by @WilliamYang120

From @BonnieGlaser and Jude Blanchette: "#Beijing should be drawing some important lessons from Russia’s aggression against #Ukraine. Though there are big differences between Ukraine and #Taiwan, there are important similarities." wsj.com/articles/ukrai…

"As Mr. Putin saw Ukraine’s growing democratic resilience and ties with the West as a threat to his regime, so does Beijing fear a robust and democratic Taiwan roughly 100 miles off its shoreline that is bolstering relations with the U.S. and its allies."

"First and most important, a foreign army should never underestimate the will of the local people to defend their territory. The U.S. learned that painfully in Vietnam and Iraq, and the Russian army is coming to understand it in the streets of Ukraine."

"Mr. Xi should particularly appreciate this lesson, having failed to anticipate massive pro-democracy protests that broke out in Hong Kong in the summer of 2019. The city may eventually have been brought to heel, ...

... but the strong opposition Beijing encountered from a population it had written off as apolitical should reinforce whatever caution Mr. Xi learns from the chaos in Ukraine."

"While the extent to which the Taiwanese people would take up arms to repel a Chinese invasion can’t be known in advance, the heroism demonstrated daily in Ukrainian city streets should serve as a warning to Beijing.

Even if the People’s Liberation Army can establish a beachhead, easy victory isn’t assured."

"Next, Beijing should ask how prepared its military is for actual combat. Even if the PLA has the equipment and capabilities to take Taiwan by force, Russia’s unexpected difficulties in Ukraine are a reminder of the limited utility of paper plans."

"The Russian army has also been plagued by problems with logistics and difficulties coordinating its forces. It has suffered high casualty rates despite battle experience in Chechnya, Syria, Georgia, South Ossetia and Abkhazia, and Crimea."

"The Chinese military doesn’t have this sort of real-world battle experience, having not fought a war since 1979, and Mr. Putin’s land war in Ukraine is far more straightforward than what would be required to take Taiwan."

"The PLA would likely have to transport millions of troops across the lengthy Taiwan Strait and land them under fire somewhere across the island’s 10 major ports and 14 beaches suitable for invasion."

"Beijing should additionally note how Russian aggression has roused an unexpected show of unity in both Europe and Asia. Governments agreed to impose unprecedented sanctions in ways that signaled a willingness to endure real sacrifice. "

"China would be much more difficult than Russia to isolate economically, but the magnitude and severity of the international response to Mr. Putin’s invasion should give Beijing pause."

"China has hedged and provided no military aid to Russia in its operation in Ukraine. Moscow might likewise refrain from materially backing a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. That would leave Beijing with very few friends."

"Mr. Xi should also draw a lesson from the rapidly evolving discussions in Sweden and Finland about possible membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization."

"If Beijing uses force against Taiwan, it may encourage some of China’s neighbors to align themselves more closely with the U.S. Even a failed effort to seize Taiwan could produce a firmer anti-China coalition as countries like India and several South China Sea claimants,...

... such as the Philippines and Vietnam, commit more strongly to countering Beijing."

"There is also an indispensable lesson here for Taiwan. If ever there was a time to reassess its defense strategy, identify the appropriate asymmetric capabilities and weapons to procure, and match them with a credible warfighting doctrine, it is now."