William Yang Profile picture
Mar 9 12 tweets 3 min read
"#Taiwan's military strategists have been studying Russia's invasion of #Ukraine, and the country's resistance, for the island's own battle strategy in the event its giant neighbour #China ever makes good on its threat to take them by force." news.yahoo.com/analysis-taiwa…
Ma Cheng-Kun, director of the Graduate Institute of China Military Affairs Studies at Taiwan's National Defence University, said Ukraine had used the same concept with mobile weapons to stymie Russian forces.
"Ukraine's military has been making full use of asymmetric warfare, very effectively, and so far successfully holding off Russia's advance," added Ma, a government advisor on China policy.
"That's exactly what our armed forces have been proactively developing," he said, pointing to weapons like the lightweight and indigenously-developed Kestrel shoulder-launched anti-armour rocket designed for close-in warfare.
"From Ukraine's performance we can be even more confident in our own."
Strategists say Taiwan can also easily detect signs of Chinese military movements and make preparations ahead of an invasion in which China would need to mobilise hundreds of thousands of soldiers and equipment like ships, which could be easily targeted by Taiwanese missiles.
To put boots on the ground China would have to cross the strait, "so it's a much higher risk" for China, said Su Tzu-yun, an associate research fellow at Taiwan's top military think tank, the Institute for National Defence and Security Research.

It's not only about hardware.
Looming in the background is the perennial debate - given new focus by the Ukraine war - about whether U.S. forces would ride to Taiwan's aid in the event of a Chinese attack. Washington practices "strategic ambiguity" on the subject, giving no clear answer either way.
Lo Chih-cheng, a senior lawmaker from the ruling Democratic Progressive Party who sits on parliament's defence and foreign affairs committee, said the Biden administration sending a team of top former officials to Taiwan last week ...
... shortly after Ukraine was invaded should dispel the idea that the United States is not to be relied on.
"At this time it sent a message to the other side of the strait, to Taiwan's people, that the United States is a trustworthy country," he told a party podcast on Tuesday.
"Do people in Taiwan really think now that the West and the United States will still come to save us?" said Chao Chien-min, a former deputy head of Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council now at Taiwan's Chinese Culture University.

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More from @WilliamYang120

Mar 9
"#Ukraine's state-run nuclear company said Russian Forces had cut a power line supplying electricity to the Chernobyl nuclear power plant.

Chernobyl no longer generates electricity, but it needs the power to help cool spent nuclear fuel." dw.com/en/eu-to-tough…
Energoatom said it was impossible to fix the power line because of ongoing fighting in the area.

Ukraine's energy minister, Herman Halushchenko, said authorities did not know the radiation levels at the site since the Russians took control of it.
"The Director-General ... indicated that remote data transmission from safeguards monitoring systems installed at the Chornobyl NPP had been lost," the International Atomic Energy Agency said in a statement.
Read 12 tweets
Mar 9
"Ukrainian forces have held off Russian forces from taking control of new cities in recent days. But the Russians continue to make smaller advances on multiple fronts, and they appear to be aiming for a target in central #Ukraine: the city of Dnipro." nytimes.com/interactive/20…
"Dnipro occupies an important position. If Russian troops can advance on it both from the north, near Kharkiv, and from the south, up from Crimea, they could isolate Ukrainian forces fighting in the Donbas region in the east, or force them to retreat."
"If the Ukrainian forces in the east are not already withdrawing, they could be potentially encircled and destroyed soon, according to an analysis by Konrad Muzyka, a defense analyst for Rochan Consulting."
Read 6 tweets
Mar 9
From @BonnieGlaser and Jude Blanchette: "#Beijing should be drawing some important lessons from Russia’s aggression against #Ukraine. Though there are big differences between Ukraine and #Taiwan, there are important similarities." wsj.com/articles/ukrai…
"As Mr. Putin saw Ukraine’s growing democratic resilience and ties with the West as a threat to his regime, so does Beijing fear a robust and democratic Taiwan roughly 100 miles off its shoreline that is bolstering relations with the U.S. and its allies."
"First and most important, a foreign army should never underestimate the will of the local people to defend their territory. The U.S. learned that painfully in Vietnam and Iraq, and the Russian army is coming to understand it in the streets of Ukraine."
Read 18 tweets
Mar 9
"By the outbreak of the war, the Russian political space had been wiped clean to the extent that is possible. In the depths of their souls, officials and legilsators may disagree with the decisions of their leaders — but only in the depths of their souls." faridaily.substack.com/p/theyre-caref…
"In reality, the attitude toward the war within the corridors of power is ambiguous. I came to this conclusion after speaking with several members of parliament and officials at various levels."
"Many of them are discouraged, frightened, and are making apocalyptic forecasts. Andrei Kostin, [head of the largely state-owned VTB Bank], is "in mourning." Some Duma members are thinking of giving up their seats."
Read 34 tweets
Mar 9
CIA Director William Burns said on Tuesday that #China appears to have been unsettled by the difficulties Russia has faced since its invasion of Ukraine, but Chinese leader Xi Jinping's determination with regard to #Taiwan should not be underestimated. news.yahoo.com/china-unsettle…
He was asked whether he thought there might be room for a more "productive" U.S. conversation with #China over #Taiwan, given the economic damage Russia had suffered after invading Ukraine. He said he did not.
"I would just say analytically, I would not underestimate President Xi and the Chinese leadership's determination with regard to Taiwan," he said.
Read 14 tweets
Mar 9
Before Twitter was blocked in #Russia, the site saw frequent discussions about how people might be able to persuade their parents not to believe Kremlin propaganda — and, above all, not to support the war in #Ukraine. dw.com/en/young-russi…
According to a survey by the state-led opinion research institute VCIOM, 68% of Russians support the war, which within the country can only officially be referred to as a "special military operation."
There are hardly any critical or independent press outlets left, and older people in particular get most of their news from state television.
Read 25 tweets

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