Thread by @JominiW

1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 13: Russian forces continue to concentrate around Kyiv. Substantial foreign / mercenary forces have been brought in to bolster Russian forces. Ukrainian attacks on Russian supply routes remain effective. #UkraineRussianWar #UkraineWar #Ukraine

2/ Humanitarian Impact. UN sources report more than 2 million refugees have fled Ukraine. Social media posting continues to confirm the increased indiscriminate attack of civilians. 60,000 civilians are trapped in Irpin. Civilians attempting to leave Sumy were blocked. #Irpin

3/ Weather assessment. In Kyiv cloudy skies and snow showers continue for the next 24 hrs. In the east snow will continue through Friday. In the south mostly sunny skies will allow for increased VKS attacks. Poor weather impedes accurate OSINT collection and aerial sorties.

4/ Kyiv AO assessment is detailed in this chart. Key take away, Russian forces will continue to execute a slow, methodical siege-and-starve approach to Kyiv. It is now assessed the Russians will prioritize the capture of Sumy over Chernihiv to secure their supply routes. #KyivNow

5/ Northeast AO assessment is detailed in this chart. Key take away, Retaining Sumy is critical for the Ukrainians as it will impede Russian ability to conduct effective operations against Kyiv. It will also delay or prevent Russian operations toward Poltava. #Sumy #Chernihiv

6/ Kharkiv and Donbas AO assessments are detailed in this chart. Key take away, Russian forces will continue to press the encirclement of Sievierodontsk, push toward Zaporizhya, and execute assaults into Mariupol. #Mariupol #Kharkhiv #Donetsk #Luhansk #UrbanWarfare

7/ The Southern AO assessment is detailed in this chart. Key take away, Ukrainian forces will continue defense of Mikolaiyv and prepare for an eventual assault on Odesa from land and sea. Ukrainian forces will continue to fortify Odesa against land & sea assault. #Odessa #Kherson

8/ Aerospace Assessment. VKS operations remain poorly planned and executed, though there are some signs of marginally improved performance. MANPADS continue to inflict severe losses on Russian fixed-wing airframes with 9 reported loses in the past 24 hrs. news.yahoo.com/russian-aircra…

9/ US Defense officials assess that the Russian military has sustained 4-10% material losses since 24 Feb and an estimated 2,000-4,000 combat deaths. These figures are assessed at low confidence yet indicate the grinding impact of high-intensity combat.

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1501233820850339847?s=20&t=TT0IxbvXLX51ifmfNHoKDg

10/ Information War. Ukrainians in occupied cities throughout southern Ukraine confront Russian Soldiers in mass protests to the invasion. In Russia demonstrations also continue, with an estimated 14,000 Russians having been imprisoned for speaking against the war.

11/ Russia has apparently allowed Chinese media to embed with units in the Donbas. This move has more than likely been made to influence Chinese opinion in favor of continued support of Russia’s actions as they face steady economic punishment.

https://twitter.com/JulianRoepcke/status/1501154100246986753?s=20&t=TT0IxbvXLX51ifmfNHoKDg

12/ Russian Overall Assessment. The Russian military is in a race against time to make decisive gains before the Ukrainians can fully integrate trained reserves equipped with western lethal aid into forward lines to overwhelm over extended Russian forces.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1501207982452977667?s=20&t=TT0IxbvXLX51ifmfNHoKDg

13/ To achieve this the Russians need to take Sumy, secure Izium, capture Sievierodontsk, and either besiege Odesa or capture it outright. Focused operations against these objectives provide the best chance to turn the war decidedly in Russia’s favor.

14/ Ukrainian Overall Assessment. The Ukrainian military will make the most of the lethal aid starting to be distributed to units throughout the country, but time is moving against them as well. It will take time to fully train and integrate reservists and foreign legionaries.

15/ How long can the Ukrainian integrated air defense last if the VKS is able to coordinate an effective air superiority campaign? Where does the Ukrainian military reestablish a defensive line if cities like Kharkiv and Poltava fall? #UkrainiansWillResist

16/ Effective logistics runs both ways, strategy and logistics are symbiotic. What we do not have a good picture of is the strain the Ukrainian logistical system is under. The Ukrainians must keep LOCs open while interdicting Russia’s. #logistics

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1500240859492757506?s=20&t=TT0IxbvXLX51ifmfNHoKDg

17/ These updates have been aggregated from various OSINT sources, official Ukrainian government statements, media reports (i.e., AP News, Reuters), and American think tank reports. Daily reports will continue, major weekly assessments / analysis forthcoming.

18/ These maps have been created by me based off the most reliable information of activity in the Ukrainian Theater of War. Errors will be corrected as soon as they are identified.