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Franz-Stefan Gady Profile picture
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Mar 10 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
My colleagues at the 🇦🇹military academy’s R&D department under Col. M. Reisner did a quick analysis of this action. 1st time we saw a 🇷🇺BTG at (least in part) operating how it is supposed to at the tactical level (execution is another matter).
Likely that this 🇷🇺unit is from the 36th or 41st Combined Arms Army (CAA). Attack shows that the Russians are are mainly attacking along main lines of communication (giving them an attack speed of ~10 to 30 km/h.)
Russian van guard is permanently delayed by Ukrainian artillery (2S9), rocket artillery (BM-21, BM-27) and small mixed 🇺🇦 mechanized elements (T64, BRDM, BMP)
Fight shows the danger of not securing urban terrain with adequate infantry plus recon. assets when main elements of a force pass through urban terrain ideally suitable for ambushes.

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More from @HoansSolo

Franz-Stefan Gady Profile picture
Mar 11
Short summary of the military situation in Ukraine (March 11) 👇🧵

Conflicting reports about 🇷🇺 progress or lack thereof: 🇷🇺 forces now ~40 km to the east of Kyiv ; around Hostomel Airport they have advanced ~5km from city limits (per US DoD); otherwise no advances in North.
Main 🇷🇺military objective remains Kyiv.

The previously-stalled Russian military convoy (or rather group of convoys) north of Kyiv has reportedly split up and advanced (from~ 20 km outside the city center to ~15 km).

Chernihiv has reportedly now been isolated; a Russian attack from the North repulsed, however; a 🇺🇦 counter-attack reportedly succeeded. (map: @Militarylandnet) Image
Read 21 tweets
Franz-Stefan Gady Profile picture
Mar 10
Short summary of the military situation in Ukraine (March 10) 👇🧵

🇷🇺 forces continue to consolidate their holdings.
Slow🇷🇺 advance in North:

-Near Hostomel Airport to the West
-Near Sumy pushing to Kyiv from the East
-Push near Cherniv is stalled
(map: @Militarylandnet)
Main 🇷🇺military objective remains Kyiv. 🇷🇺 lack manpower for large-scale combined arms assault on the capital. Encirclement is also proving difficult.

This still holds. 👇
🇷🇺 forces advanced ~ 20km toward Kharkiv (per US DoD), continued heavy shelling of the city; Izium is under heavy attack; 🇺🇦 forces have reportedly conducted counter-attacks in the area; minor 🇷🇺 gains along Donbas frontline.

(map: @Militarylandnet)
Read 17 tweets
Franz-Stefan Gady Profile picture
Mar 9
Short summary of the military situation in Ukraine (March 9) 👇🧵

🇷🇺 forces continue to advance in South a. North.

-Near Hostomel Airport to the West
-Near Cherniv (heavy 🇺🇦resistance)
-With a large armored force near Sumy pushing to Kyiv from the East. (map @JanesINTEL)
Main 🇷🇺military objective remains Kyiv.

In the South, there are attempts to encircle Mykolaiv (some 🇷🇺 have bypassed it); new push on Zaporizhya.
Mariupol has been encircled; 🇷🇺 forces from Crimea and Donbas linked up.

1st humanitarian corridor has begun to work in Sumy.
The humanitarian corridors serve a clear military purpose for Russia: it empties the cities of civilians a. will allow even more indiscriminate bombing in the weeks ahead. This by @SpencerGuard on the reason why civilian areas are being bombed is spot on.
Read 14 tweets
Franz-Stefan Gady Profile picture
Mar 8
Short summary of the military situation in Ukraine (March 8) 👇🧵

Nearly 100 % of the Russian combat force prestaged at the Ukrainian border is now committed to the fight in Ukraine (per US DoD).

🇷🇺 forces are preparing for next phase of ground offensives across 🇺🇦.
Russians are still regrouping/replenishing. No large-scale offensive ops in 24 hours (that we know of) despite fighting on all fronts--especially in North around Kyiv--where 🇷🇺 is massing its forces (near Irpin) for an eventual assault with new units (eg, Chechens) arriving.
Russian forces🇷🇺 made some gain gains in North, Northeast, South and East; a small 🇷🇺 attack against Mykolayiv airport failed; 🇺🇦 conducted at least one successful counterattack near Mariupol in Southeast. 🇷🇺 forces from Crimea and Donbas have linked up.
(map:@Militarylandnet)
Read 13 tweets
Franz-Stefan Gady Profile picture
Mar 7
Fascinating piece. Two weeks prior to the start of the war, Marine Corps University ran an 4-day wargame to simulate the first several days of a 🇷🇺 invasion of 🇺🇦. Current Russian offensive is playing out in ways eerily similar to the game.
warontherocks.com/2022/03/the-wa… @WarOnTheRocks
Interesting section on 🇺🇦 counterattacks and attrition of Ukrainian maneuver formations: "The Ukrainian commander, in the wargame, decided to send three brigades from the city to counterattack into the flank of Russian armored forces."
"This led to a major engagement about 40 kilometers northwest of Kharkiv against the Russian 27th Guards Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade. In the ensuing battle, both the 27th SMRB and the Ukrainian 92nd Mechanized Brigade were destroyed."
Read 4 tweets
Franz-Stefan Gady Profile picture
Mar 7
“In less than a week, the United States and NATO have pushed more than 17,000 antitank weapons, including Javelin missiles, over the borders of Poland and Romania, unloading them from giant military cargo planes so they can make the trip by land to Kyiv..” nytimes.com/2022/03/06/us/…
The “resupply effort faces stiff logistical and operational challenges.
‘The window for doing easy stuff to help the Ukrainians has closed,’ said Maj. Gen. Michael S. Repass, a former commander of U.S. Special Operations forces in Europe.”
“Hidden away on bases around Eastern Europe, forces from United States Cyber Command known as “cybermission teams’ are in place to interfere with Russia’s digital attacks and communications — but measuring their success rate is difficult, officials say.”
Read 4 tweets

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