Thread by @HoansSolo

Short summary of the military situation in Ukraine (March 11) 👇🧵

Conflicting reports about 🇷🇺 progress or lack thereof: 🇷🇺 forces now ~40 km to the east of Kyiv ; around Hostomel Airport they have advanced ~5km from city limits (per US DoD); otherwise no advances in North.

Main 🇷🇺military objective remains Kyiv.

The previously-stalled Russian military convoy (or rather group of convoys) north of Kyiv has reportedly split up and advanced (from~ 20 km outside the city center to ~15 km).

https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1502080792087961600?s=20&t=p4CytNurOfheoIXADOtQFQ

Chernihiv has reportedly now been isolated; a Russian attack from the North repulsed, however; a 🇺🇦 counter-attack reportedly succeeded. (map: @Militarylandnet)

A general trend appears to be that more 🇷🇺 troops are being used to encircle 🇺🇦 cities. This has also been reported by @DefenceHQ 👇

This is one reason why we have seen little changes around the frontlines in the country.

New human corridors (per 🇷🇺 MoFA): "From 10am Moscow time (1800 AEDT) on March 11, 2022, the Russian Federation will declare a 'regime of silence' and is ready to provide humanitarian corridors," in 5 cities ( Kyiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Mariupol and Chernihiv.)

https://twitter.com/mod_russia/status/1502012871479279620?s=20&t=WuOue0mjQxXp7xhoZ56j_g

These human corridors serve a clear military purpose for Russia: it empties the cities of civilians & will allow even more indiscriminate bombing of urban centers in the weeks ahead.

No major advances on Donbass frontlines. Kharkiv/Sumy continue to hold out under heavy shelling.

South: further attempts to encircle Mykolaiv (some 🇷🇺 have bypassed it); 🇷🇺 forces are prepping for new push on Zaporizhya; Mariupol remains encircled and under heavy bombardment

This provides a good overview of Russian advances in the first 2 weeks of the war. By and large, Russian forces appear to stay on the roads.

https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/1501942226943119362?s=20&t=1VFG2_wYKP4eHttfWOyqhA

I wanted to offer few corrections to this pic:

-picture shows🇷🇺rear not van guard
-the arrow does not face south to Kyiv but north to
Bohdanivka (h/t @Danspiun)
-🇺🇦 artillery was likely 2S19 (typo below)
- The Russian tank destroyed is a T-72A

https://twitter.com/HoansSolo/status/1501885056310259714?s=20&t=oPWvWPX7cqyCuyvalEEozA

🇷🇺 forces were trying to get around this urban terrain after regrouping. More info in this 🧵 👇

https://twitter.com/Danspiun/status/1502001295225495557?s=20&t=oPWvWPX7cqyCuyvalEEozA

Bot sides continue to suffer from heavy major equipment losses:

🇷🇺 losses- 1034 vehicles, including 173 tanks and 322 A/IFVs

🇺🇦 losses- 284 vehicles, including 47 tanks and 93 A/IFVs

(take these # as baseline estimates)
oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack…

There are signs that 🇷🇺 forces are slowly adapting (deploying more UAVs, rely more on ground-based fires and practice some rudimentary combined arms tactics.) However, their tactical performance remains decidedly mixed.

https://twitter.com/nolanwpeterson/status/1501885449706561538?s=20&t=rfmIxnzuXXqyviVLr-4z6A

Ukrainian forces continue to harass Russian forces with ambush tactics in small unit formations.

https://twitter.com/Blue_Sauron/status/1501967817247281158?s=20&t=p4CytNurOfheoIXADOtQFQ

Again, be aware that we are getting a lopsided picture of military ops in 🇺🇦. Harassing actions/ambushes can slow down 🇷🇺 forces but can't really stop the Russians when they begin to advance using more combined arms tactics.

More evidence of Russian drone strikes.

https://twitter.com/Blue_Sauron/status/1502182076853981186?s=20&t=0PrrmLpp1Q4VURim5fbW9A

Here is an overview by @CSIS on long-range strike systems used/observed to have been deployed in Ukraine. (Unclear how much the Tochka-U stock has been depleted on the Ukrainian side, and how many Tb2s remain operational at this stage of the war.)

From a tactical perspective, these are the types of weapons systems Ukraine needs rather than fighter aircraft. Discussing these arms transfers so publicly is rather curious and something I would not have expected.

wsj.com/articles/u-s-a… via @WSJ

Apropos, it looks like the Russians have captured a U.S.-made anti-tank weapon.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1502189126241726465?s=20&t=p4CytNurOfheoIXADOtQFQ

The brutal reality of what is meant by the Russian forces increasingly using ground-based mass fires to break up Ukrainian resistance.

https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1502195632995512321?s=20&t=KvERSCrrXJoF4b5WVNW_Xw

Last, Russian forces have also been stepping up their bombing campaigns against Ukrainian airfields.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1502157952056107010?s=20&t=PSvt26YeIaN8nnvo5t9flw

Addendum: Here are 2 maps by @JominiW. It shows slow 🇷🇺 progress including some setbacks. It remains to be seen how fast/if 🇷🇺 forces will really manage to seal off Kyiv. If the below is accurate, I am growing more skeptical whether 🇷🇺 could maintain a prolonged siege of capital.