Short summary of the military situation in Ukraine (March 10) 👇🧵
🇷🇺 forces continue to consolidate their holdings.
Slow🇷🇺 advance in North:
-Near Hostomel Airport to the West
-Near Sumy pushing to Kyiv from the East
-Push near Cherniv is stalled
(map: @Militarylandnet)
🇷🇺 forces continue to consolidate their holdings.
Slow🇷🇺 advance in North:
-Near Hostomel Airport to the West
-Near Sumy pushing to Kyiv from the East
-Push near Cherniv is stalled
(map: @Militarylandnet)
Main 🇷🇺military objective remains Kyiv. 🇷🇺 lack manpower for large-scale combined arms assault on the capital. Encirclement is also proving difficult.
This still holds. 👇
This still holds. 👇
https://twitter.com/HoansSolo/status/1501498756843413504?s=20&t=LCiMwevuTf4n4g3XQFBL_g
🇷🇺 forces advanced ~ 20km toward Kharkiv (per US DoD), continued heavy shelling of the city; Izium is under heavy attack; 🇺🇦 forces have reportedly conducted counter-attacks in the area; minor 🇷🇺 gains along Donbas frontline.
(map: @Militarylandnet)
(map: @Militarylandnet)
Note: Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts have so far not been fully occupied by separatist/🇷🇺 forces.
South: further attempts to encircle Mykolaiv (some 🇷🇺 have bypassed it); 🇷🇺 forces are prepping for new push on Zaporizhya; Mariupol remains encircled and under heavy bombardment.
South: further attempts to encircle Mykolaiv (some 🇷🇺 have bypassed it); 🇷🇺 forces are prepping for new push on Zaporizhya; Mariupol remains encircled and under heavy bombardment.
Humanitarian corridors have begun working in parts of the country. They serve a clear military purpose for Russia: it empties the cities of civilians a. will allow even more indiscriminate bombing in the weeks ahead.
There is an ongoing danger for Ukrainian forces east of the Dnpr to be cut off by Russian advances in the Northeast and Southeast before they can reach the cross the river and regroup.
🇷🇺manpower issues are evident and likely part of the reason for lull in fighting a. Russian regrouping.
🇷🇺reinforcements will need to be moved into the country soon.
(Impossible to verify numbers below. If approximately right they are significant)
🇷🇺reinforcements will need to be moved into the country soon.
(Impossible to verify numbers below. If approximately right they are significant)
https://twitter.com/edokeefe/status/1501718359099981835?s=20&t=To4VYexFtx5DZ_7Klz2jJA
🇷🇺major equipment losses suffered in Ukraine are reportedly exceeding 950. They have slowed down somewhat in last days. 1 reason: 🇷🇺 forces mostly consolidating/regrouping for larger operations. oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack…
On 🇷🇺 Russian conscripts in Ukraine. They are an integral part of ground forces so obviously unsurprising.
https://twitter.com/HoansSolo/status/1501583574088232967?s=20&t=U-i19ZhoW7CHQCNFm2IFyQ
🇷🇺 forces apparently continue to struggle with their suppression of enemy air defense/destruction of enemy air defense campaign. Air space remains contested; however, 🇷🇺 are expanding air defense pockets , especially in the North.
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1501586172266659851?s=20&t=TAy4s3C07Cqqs_wqYao6uw
There is little I was able to ascertain about 🇺🇦 forces in past 24hrs; little intel on casualties or ops; 🇺🇦 air defenses remain intact; morale appears high; little evidence of🇺🇦 combined arms ops.
Note: We cont. to live in the 🇺🇦 narrative of this war.
Note: We cont. to live in the 🇺🇦 narrative of this war.
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1501649507871862794?s=20&t=TAy4s3C07Cqqs_wqYao6uw
Important point by @EliotACohen 👇 As Napoleon allegedly said:“in war the moral is to the physical as three is to one.”
https://twitter.com/EliotACohen/status/1501629076859199495?s=20&t=7qw0V24vEQEFHSZCkYDltQ
This by @billroggio should also be kept in mind when attempting to get a clearer picture of the military situation in Ukraine.
https://twitter.com/billroggio/status/1500915123023753218?s=20&t=U-i19ZhoW7CHQCNFm2IFyQ
Important to also keep an eye on the diplomatic front. Positions are slightly shifting on both sides.
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1501734956388831236?s=20&t=I3IRABx0lYC8XlyC0rmbNA
Summary:
🇷🇺 forces continue to consolidate their holdings; manpower/supply/morale issues are evident.
🇺🇦 defenses are by a. large holding;🇺🇦 forces launched counterattacks; a. continue to conduct small-scale raids against 🇷🇺 forces.
Assume heavy casualties on both sides.
🇷🇺 forces continue to consolidate their holdings; manpower/supply/morale issues are evident.
🇺🇦 defenses are by a. large holding;🇺🇦 forces launched counterattacks; a. continue to conduct small-scale raids against 🇷🇺 forces.
Assume heavy casualties on both sides.
Addendum: I am sharing two good maps by @JominiW.
1. Ukrainian forces are being pushed into a tight defensive ring around Kyiv (Attacks on supply routes have a large impact on Russian advance.)
2. Advance is South appears stalled/slower
3. Effective defensive line in Donbas
1. Ukrainian forces are being pushed into a tight defensive ring around Kyiv (Attacks on supply routes have a large impact on Russian advance.)
2. Advance is South appears stalled/slower
3. Effective defensive line in Donbas
(Just keep in mind that the overall operational picture remains murky; the fog of war still applies.)
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