US Remodeler Index is out, 4 big themes this qtr: 1) Projects getting BIGGER. 2) Product/material lead times, labor shortages got worse. 3) Remodelers FLEXING pricing power to protect margin. 4) No homes to buy=more whole-home remodels. Commentary from remodelers here… 🧵 1/11
#Missouri Full-service Remodeler: "Delivery times are 32 weeks for my windows and 50 weeks for doors. Delivery delays have brought my projects to a halt and it will be early Q2 before we'll be able to start work again on substantial projects.” 2/11
#Illinois Home Improvement Pro: "We have shifted to other brands that kept lead times and pricing under control." 3/11
#Colorado Design-Build Firm: "Housing is in short supply and new homes are getting more and more expensive. People are staying in place and remodeling." 4/11
#Washington Specialty Contractor: "Our housing market is strong and there are limited opportunities for new construction of homes leaving remodeling existing homes as the primary option. We are seeing more people upgrade." 5/11
#Georgia Design-Build Firm: "We are holding back on budget commitments, writing in escalation clauses, and ordering as many materials as possible immediately upon signing the contract." 6/
#Florida Design-Build Firm: "We are focusing first on larger and more complicated projects. They bring the best return by far and are a lot less competitive. By securing larger projects, we can then pick and choose smaller fill-in jobs." 7/11
#Florida Home Improvement Pro: "We keep a larger reserve of supply material. We do more cross training of staff due to labor shortages." 8/11
#Indiana Full-Service Remodeler: "We have raised our prices and become more selective. Most projects are 4 months out." 9/11
#Texas Full-Service Remodeler: "I no longer bid jobs with materials included. Most of my bids are labor-plus-materials with the materials markup included in my labor price." 10/11
#Northeast Specialty Contractor: "Consumers are more alarmed than ever about inflationary trends. It's making them fearful of ‘pulling the trigger’ on sales contracts." 11/11
Will be sharing more highlights & charts in the next few days. Feel free to reach out with any questions.
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Esther George @KansasCityFed: "$6.9 trillion holdings of federal agency and longer-term Treasury debt is depressing the 10-year Treasury yield by roughly 150 basis points" -- I believe this misses a key point:
The market is a discounting mechanism, bringing the expected future into the present. And the Fed has telegraphed policy, emphasizing predictability. 2/
The market has responded accordingly. Since Dec 23rd: