Thread by @SamRamani2

Ukraine and Russia's foreign ministers will meet tomorrow for talks in Antalya, Turkey

Turkey condemned Russia's invasion of Ukraine, but has also offered mediation services

I am sharing some thoughts on Turkey's position in this conflict /1

After the invasion, Erdogan described Russia's actions as "unacceptable" but vowed to balance ties between Russia and Ukraine

Turkey also ruled out participation in Western sanctions against Russia /2

Volodymyr Zelensky then pre-emptively claimed that Turkey had agreed to block access to Russian warships in the Black Sea

Turkey swiftly denied it had made this decision, but swiftly U-turned and banned Russian ships /3

Turkey has aspired to be a mediator between Russia and Ukraine since the spring 2021 brinkmanship episode

Ukraine has been receptive to Turkish mediation, but Russia rejected it and the US feared that too many diplomatic tracks would create confusion in NATO /4

Turkey's ability to maintain business-as-usual relations with Russia, which is evidenced by continued joint patrols in Syria, and support Ukraine, created an opening

Turkey has outmaneuvered Israel and Saudi Arabia, which also coveted this mediation role /5

Turkey and Russia have experience working together diplomatically

Both countries tried to bring about a ceasefire in Libya in January 2020, and are co-guarantors of the Astana Peace Process in Syria

2+2 foreign and defence ministry relations have strengthened too /6

Prospects for a diplomatic resolution this time are slim, especially given Russia's failure to respect the humanitarian corridors

These talks are a win for Turkey's international status and prestige within NATO, but are unlikely to achieve meaningful results /7