Russia has not made extensive use of cyberattacks in Ukraine
The Economist has described cyber as the dog that didn't bark in Russia's war on Ukraine
I will add some context about Russia's cyber restraint in this thread below
The Economist has described cyber as the dog that didn't bark in Russia's war on Ukraine
I will add some context about Russia's cyber restraint in this thread below
The nature of the war explains a lot:
https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1499136582770733061?s=20&t=i_2eBX-zpAS37vkR3oIDrQ
Another theory is that Russia has little interest in destroying Ukraine's core economic infrastructure via cyberattacks.
Instead, given the logistical problems the Russian military has faced so far, it might benefit from keeping it intact, occupying and using it.
Instead, given the logistical problems the Russian military has faced so far, it might benefit from keeping it intact, occupying and using it.
Another is a poor track record
Russia succeeded in the December 2015 Ukraine power grid attack but that grid had Russian parts and its software was likely familiar to hackers
The 2014 Ukrainian election hacks, which aimed to highlight far-right popularity, resoundingly failed
Russia succeeded in the December 2015 Ukraine power grid attack but that grid had Russian parts and its software was likely familiar to hackers
The 2014 Ukrainian election hacks, which aimed to highlight far-right popularity, resoundingly failed
Russia used cyberattacks in Georgia as a tool of disinformation
In the 2008 Georgian War, Russian hackers promoted the Saakashvili = Hitler analogy and Georgian aggression narratives
This did not move public opinion in Georgia or in Azerbaijan, which was also targeted
In the 2008 Georgian War, Russian hackers promoted the Saakashvili = Hitler analogy and Georgian aggression narratives
This did not move public opinion in Georgia or in Azerbaijan, which was also targeted
Russian cyberattacks might also increase cyber-deterrence
NATO dealt with the Russian cyber threat more seriously after Estonia 2007 and Estonia and the US informally aided Georgia in 2008
Ukraine was on the cusp of joining "cyber-NATO" prior to the war but Hungary blocked that
NATO dealt with the Russian cyber threat more seriously after Estonia 2007 and Estonia and the US informally aided Georgia in 2008
Ukraine was on the cusp of joining "cyber-NATO" prior to the war but Hungary blocked that
Russia is also worried about blowback
RIA Novosti was hacked in the 2008 Georgian War, and websites have also been attacked
As Belarus used cyberattacks to disrupt migration flows and target websites, Ukraine could retaliate with attacks that disrupt coordination with Russia
RIA Novosti was hacked in the 2008 Georgian War, and websites have also been attacked
As Belarus used cyberattacks to disrupt migration flows and target websites, Ukraine could retaliate with attacks that disrupt coordination with Russia
If Russia does not win outright, cyberattacks would encourage the West to provide more cyber assistance to Ukraine
The US has offered aid, non-NATO countries like Sweden are chipping in, and the Russian media has raised alarm about a Britain-Ukraine cyber-axis against Russia
The US has offered aid, non-NATO countries like Sweden are chipping in, and the Russian media has raised alarm about a Britain-Ukraine cyber-axis against Russia
To summarize, cyberattacks bring a lot of risks and few discernible benefits at this time
If Russia chose an alternative course, such as a limited Donbas incursion, cyberattacks might have been used more regularly and Russia could have capitalized on political discord in Ukraine
If Russia chose an alternative course, such as a limited Donbas incursion, cyberattacks might have been used more regularly and Russia could have capitalized on political discord in Ukraine
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