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Mar 9 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
In midst of Ukraine tragedy, the ROK presidential election isn't getting much attention--but the outcome may portend notable shifts in Seoul's foreign policy, accelerating the regional alignment of democracies + partners already underway
foreignaffairs.com/articles/south…
Many uncertainties: Candidates say things elected presidents sometimes ignore; constraints on resources + time; parliamentary obstacles. But the agenda Yoon laid out points to a "deeper," "comprehensive" alliance w/US, coop w/China but tougher stance ...
voanews.com/a/south-korean…
... more active role in promoting free + open Indo-Pacific, improved ties w/Japan. Combined w/ongoing trends in Japan, Australia, India + other, this will strengthen the regional grouping willing to push back vs PRC and collaborate on multilateral security initiatives
In a wider sense this shift may become another example of a growing trend. Amid pronouncements of "autocrats on the march," intensifying reaction to China bullying + now balancing vs Russian threat may generate geopolitical alignments sliding steadily *against* China and Russia
They already faced a strategic dilemma: As revisionists, how to upend an int'l order most countries see as working in their favor without levels of coercive force that spark decisive counterbalancing. Russia has now totally blown that balance, a stark lesson to China
It's not just about lessons for a Taiwan invasion, it's about what Ukraine + the reaction say about the leeway revisionists have when peaceful influence-seeking doesn't get them what they want (because it mostly won't). Going coercive = a world much less amenable to their power
ROK is a great example. PRC punished them for THAAD deployment. That + other coercion = absolutely tanked the view of China in the ROK. 15 yrs ago, some in ROK were entertaining the idea of the PRC as alt sec'y partner. No more
nytimes.com/2021/08/20/wor…
In a world where most targets of RU/CH coercion have clearly opposing interests, where others are motivated to reject bullying, and where the US offers diplomatic + military backstop for balancing--I am not sure how China and Russia escape this essential strategic dilemma

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Mike Mazarr Profile picture
Mar 9
A quick thread about moral injunctions, imperatives, MiGs, no-fly zones, and the standards for effective judgment.
Overall message: Acting on the basis of imperative-driven thinking, especially under time pressure in a crisis, is a common prelude to disaster
2/ Researching the basis for the US decision to invade Iraq, I was struck by the powerful sense of urgency, the need to act almost regardless of consequences, that drove senior officials. This skewed the whole decision process
publicaffairsbooks.com/titles/michael…
3/ Looking more widely I found this to be a common problem: Decision makers so driven by urgent imperatives that they stopped taking outcomes seriously. They became "indifferent to consequences"; what they "had" to do overwhelmed any real risk assessment
link.springer.com/book/10.1007/9…
Read 11 tweets
Mike Mazarr Profile picture
Mar 8
Agreed--a dangerous proposal, offering no compelling reason why escalation would be controlled. Much like the open letters calling for unseating Saddam in 2002-2003: An understandable, well-intentioned, but poorly thought-through appeal
2/ Partly the issue is that NFZ's typically *do not work* to achieve their humanitarian goals. Air power often isn't the major threat to civilians. Even if it is, the aggressor can pivot and rely more on ground forces, missile strikes, other means
warontherocks.com/2022/03/the-da…
3/ "Operations to protect civilians during war are often much costlier and carry much greater risk than anticipated. No-fly zones ... seldom provide substantial protection to civilians without additional and significant military efforts on the ground"
tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.10…
Read 11 tweets
Mike Mazarr Profile picture
Mar 7
The argument for increasing clamp-down on energy, given the callous nature of Russian operations, is persuasive. But I'm increasingly worried about a historical parallel which, while imperfect/many differences, offers tremendous reason for worry: Japan 1941 [THREAD]
2/ Spent the last 2 days (re)reading two superb accounts of the road to war in 1940-1941. One = Eri Hotta's "Japan 1941," which has to be one of the best accounts of a nation's decision for war ever written. Worrisome parallels to Russia today, including:
penguinrandomhouse.com/books/203635/j…
3/ --Country infuriated by sense of being discriminated against by a US-led int'l order
--Rise of anti-Western hyper-nationalism, including some sr officials
--Aggression (v. China) undertaken w/wishful thinking + vague sense of goals which triggers condemnation + sanctions
Read 15 tweets
Mike Mazarr Profile picture
Mar 6
I get the signaling value of more defense $. But w/ (1) Russia possibly facing an extended COIN war, (2) having suffered significant losses, (3) showing much less capacity for large scale warfare than we assumed, and (4) EU bolstering its own budgets ...
breakingdefense.com/2022/03/no-dou…
2/ ... it's hard to see the argument that the Russian threat to Europe is operationally *greater* than before in a way that demands a bigger budget. If anything, now and for several years, the objective Russian operational threat is likely to decline
3/ The Russian military on display seems less capable of rushing through the Baltics, or Poland, than we thought. @KofmanMichael and others have rightly warned about tilting too far in the other direction. But this isn't an urgent crisis of mil. power
warontherocks.com/2021/11/feedin…
Read 9 tweets
Mike Mazarr Profile picture
Mar 2
The shaming of Mearsheimer as a Russian stooge is wrong + dangerous. But this interview does illustrate another point: His theory, and especially its application to specific cases, is totally incoherent when it gets beyond the most generic truisms THREAD
newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/w…
2/ For one thing, the dialogue w/@IChotiner shows how Mearsh's perspective simply can't incorporate normative issues. Chotiner keeps trying to distinguish great power machinations from legitimate Ukrainian aspirations; Mearsheimer can only see it via great power interests lens
3/ More broadly, a consistent problem w/offensive realism is its refusal to accept the role of norms and institutions, despite ample evidence of their real-world effect. Mearsh. can't explain the global normative reaction to this invasion
belfercenter.org/publication/in…
Read 18 tweets
Mike Mazarr Profile picture
Feb 27
100% right. This is an understandable emotion but not a considered policy position. Publicly taking that stance = zero incentive for compromise from Putin or anyone close to him, creating the most dangerous possible situation
Remember what McNamara learned from Castro about the Cuban missile crisis in 1992: In the event of a US invasion, Castro was prepared to endorse the use of nuclear weapons even though he knew the Cuban people would "disappear"
armscontrol.org/act/2002-11/fe…
Embracing regime change would also shift the narrative in wholly self-destructive ways. Potential to fragment global consensus vs Russia. W/in Russia, it would endorse Putin's lie that this is all a necessary response to Western aggression + potentially boost his support
Read 5 tweets

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