Thread by @MarkHertling

Lot of recent talk about Russian (and Ukrainian) casualties.

Reports vary, based on who provides them, and how they are counting the losses.

History shows that in war, those who are conducting the offense (Russia), casualties tend to be higher...in the defense, lower 1/18

But number of casualties are also affected by other things:
-the type of conflict (conventional vs insurgency)
-the method of war (infantry vs tanks/aircraft)
-the quality of medical support 2/

This war is different than what Americans are used to seeing in Iraq & Afghanistan, with patrols taking fire or vehicles hitting IEDs.

In an insurgency/counterinsurgency, casualties are mostly among infantry, engineers, support personnel...and there are fewer killed/injured. 3/

I have a box on my desk with cards showing the faces of 153 soldiers who made the ultimate sacrifice who were part of the Division I commanded during a 15 month tour in 2007-8

I look at those pictures daily, and remember those soldiers. It still hurts 4/

The number of casualties Russians and Ukrainians are taking in this conflict are - so far - staggering to those who fought in Iraq and Afghanistan.

It's a different conflict, where tanks, armored carriers, artillery, and airplanes are engaging on this battlefield. 5/

The type of conflict is different. The battles are more intense with more killed and wounded. I would guess the probability has a RU unit losing 153 soldiers in a day, as opposed to our 15 months in combat.

But the intensity and type of fight is only one factor. 6/

Medical support is another factor.

There was much made about RU "stocking blood" a few weeks ago in Belarus. That is critical, for if a wounded soldier loses more than 1-2 pints...he won't make it. 7/

You have to have highly trained medics with each unit...

That's tougher with long convoys, and the Russian army soldier is mostly a conscript. That includes their medics, too. Not very well trained. 8/

Contributing to medical support is something the US military calls "the golden hour."

If you don't get a wounded soldier initial aid (a medic) and then to an aid facility with doctors within an hour, their chance of survival drops significantly. 9/

Which brings me to the 40-mile convoy everyone was talking about.

Yes, that convoy was stalled with fuel, ammo, food, & spare part for several days.

I would bet there was also medical support in that column...and they were there to execute ground transport to aid stations. 10/

What about the famous "airevac," or what we've learned to get the seriously wounded back to a combat hospital?

Well, this hasn't shown to be an environment where helicopters fly without being shot down. So scratch that approach, too. 11/

Logisticians & medical officers use planning factors to get the wounded out...but as I said a few days ago, the RU generals are not very good at integrating logistics plans into their combat operations.

So, a lot of wounded Russians will likely die due to lack of aid. 12/

Finally, as the terrific @juliaioffe mentioned tonight, Russians don't use the word "cannon fodder" in combat...they derisively call their soldiers "cannon meat."

Horrific. Shows the leadership approach by Russian officers and civilian masters. 13/

Now, this type of intense conflict also affects Ukraine's soldiers. It will be harsh, and lethal, and catastrophic.

But in hosting Ukraines' soldiers at our facility in Germany, they were provided medic training for those going to Afghanistan as part of ISAF. 14/

The Ukrainian senior and junior officers - and newly established NCO corps - were also provided with training on establishing ways to get wounded soldiers off the battlefield.

And that, i'm convinced, will make a difference. 15/

But Russia attacking civilian populations also affects this calculation. It is part of their plan.

Attacking civilians causes confusion, chaos, frustration, death and injury, and the desire to escape.

That's what's happening now as Russia strikes civilian cities. 16/

Attacking civilians takes manpower away from the Ukrainian fight. The medical personnel (and those giving out sandwiches, protecting busses, getting families out) are pulled in two directions:

Protect the citizens, or go with the Ukrainian units? 17/

I only provide this for information for consideration by those who are uninitiated to what we're seeing now.

But will end with one statement: It is Vladimir Putin who is purposely causing this pain and death...to his soldiers, and to Ukraine.

That's why he sickens me. 18/18