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Ali Vaez Profile picture
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Mar 10 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
Why should we listen to policy makers who have been consistently wrong? These Democrats supported Trump's withdrawal and are responsible for allowing Iran to advance to the verge of nuclear weapons. jewishinsider.com/2022/03/eleven…
Here is @ElaineLuriaVA in 2019
jns.org/democratic-rep…
Here is @TomReedNY23 in 2018:
wrvo.org/politics-and-g…
Here is @RepJoshG in 2018:
gottheimer.house.gov/news/documents…

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More from @AliVaez

Ali Vaez Profile picture
Mar 11
What's happening in #ViennaTalks? A state of play, best as I can tell [Thread]
2/ Last week, the main - but not sole - area of disagreement was over Iran's @iaeaorg safeguards probe. U.S./E3 as well as the agency were clear that closing it was a non-starter.

DG Grossi went to Tehran on Saturday, secured an roadmap to address this.

One step forward.
3/ But the same day, right after 🇮🇱 PM’s visit, Russia's FM threw a wrench into the mix:

Facing what he described as an "avalanche of aggressive sanctions" against 🇷🇺 over 🇺🇦 Lavrov called for guarantees that these would not "in any way damage our right to free and full trade".
Read 9 tweets
Ali Vaez Profile picture
Mar 9
This afternoon, Senators @SenatorRisch, @tedcruz and @SenJohnBarrasso are leading a @SenateGOP press conference on the Iran nuclear deal.

You'd be hard-pressed to find three people who've been as wrong over as long a period on how to address Iran's nuclear program. [Thread] Image
2| Here's @SenatorRisch talking to @NPR in 2017, prior to Trump's withdrawal. He laments the deal's sunsets (not 10 years, BTW), and says the solution is... sanctions. Well, we know how that worked out - no nuclear restrictions at all! Image
3| Here's @SenJohnBarrasso on @FoxNews in 2019, lauding the decision to withdraw because "it didn't step them from getting the path to the weapon".

Yet here we are, with Iran enriching near-weapons grade, under limited monitoring, weeks from breakout capability. Image
Read 6 tweets
Ali Vaez Profile picture
Jan 17
🧵گروه بحران: ششمین گزارش از وضعیت اجرای برجام بر اساس نزدیک به ۵۰ مصاحبه با مقامات کشورهای عضو برجام، آمریکا، منطقه و سازمان ملل. «مهلت نهایی» [ترجمه فارسی] @CrisisGroup

crisisgroup.org/fa/middle-east…
۲/ایران و آمریکا چند ماه است که به صورت غیرمستقیم بر سر احیای برجام در حال مذاکره‌اند اما موفق نشده‌اند راهکاری برای بازگشت مشترک پیدا کنند. جای تعجب ندارد که هر یک تقصیر را به گردن دیگری می‌اندازد. تروئیکای اروپایی و آمریکا در یک جبهه و روسیه و چین تا حدودی با ایران هم موضع‌اند.
۳/ ما تنش‌زایی هسته‌ای ایران در سال گذشته را مرور کردیم. از نظر کمی و کیفی، مثل غنی‌سازی ۶۰٪ بعد از حمله به نطنز، پیشرفت‌ها تصاعدی بوده. اگرچه هنوز اثری از ساخت سلاح هسته‌ای نیست، اما زمان گریز – دستیابی به میزان کافی اورانیوم برای ساخت یک بمب اتمی – به سه هفته رسیده است.
Read 21 tweets
Ali Vaez Profile picture
Jan 17
🧵 New from @CrisisGroup: Our 6th - perhaps final - report on the status of the 2015 nuclear deal, based on more than 50 interviews conducted with officials from JCPOA parties, the U.S., UN and regional governments over the past several months 👇crisisgroup.org/middle-east-no…
2| U.S. & Iran have engaged in months of indirect talks aimed at restoring JCPOA. These have failed to deliver a framework for mutual compliance. Unsurprisingly, each sees the other at fault. E3 aligned w/ U.S.; Russia & China not unsympathetic to Iran but within limits.
3| We review Iran's nuclear escalation over past year, during which it made quantitative and qualitative leaps, inc raising enrichment to 60% - highest ever - after April attack at Natanz. Though still no evidence of weaponization, breakout time now a matter of weeks.
Read 22 tweets
Ali Vaez Profile picture
Dec 16, 2021
بیش از یک دهه است که بر بحران هسته ای ایران تمرکز کرده ام. در این سالها انواع اتهامات به من زده شده: از داماد زاهدی گرفته تا کارمند سیا، از لابی ج.ا. و مشاور ظریف گرفته تا هزاردستان و کارمند سوروس. هرگز اهمیتی به این حرفها و هجمه ها نداده و نمی دهم. اصل مواضع فرد است 1/
مهمترین مواضع من و گروه بحران در سالهای اخیر به این شرح بوده است:
- مخالفت با اقدام ترامپ در تضعیف برجام حتی پیش از خروج آمریکا
2/
- مخالفت با فشار حداکثری و یکی از رساترین صداها در مخالفت با تحریم ها و لابی های مربوطه
3/
Read 10 tweets
Ali Vaez Profile picture
Dec 16, 2021
The effort to rewrite history is really quite something.

Let's start with this: If Trump hadn't left JCPOA, we wouldn't be discussing nuclear expansion in the first place.

But instead of acknowledging that for the mistake it is, facts are spun in the service of narrative. 1/
2/ Note the phrase "since the election" - a neat dodge over the fact that increase to 20%, uranium metal production, & limits on IAEA inspections all put in motion in Dec 2020, after assassination of Fakhrizadeh.

Yet this key fact is curiously omitted in the FDD history.
3/ And again in April 2021, we see the escalation of enrichment from 20% to 60%, somehow failing to mention the explosion at Natanz barely 48 earlier.
Read 4 tweets

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