Thread by @AliVaez

What's happening in #ViennaTalks? A state of play, best as I can tell [Thread]

2/ Last week, the main - but not sole - area of disagreement was over Iran's @IAEAOrg safeguards probe. U.S./E3 as well as the agency were clear that closing it was a non-starter.

DG Grossi went to Tehran on Saturday, secured an roadmap to address this.

One step forward.

3/ But the same day, right after 🇮🇱 PM’s visit, Russia's FM threw a wrench into the mix:

Facing what he described as an "avalanche of aggressive sanctions" against 🇷🇺 over 🇺🇦 Lavrov called for guarantees that these would not "in any way damage our right to free and full trade".

4/ Not clear if the Iranians had any clue this was coming. U.S. quickly and repeatedly underscored that any sanctions relief on Iran is not a carte blanche for other potentially sanctioned entities (ie, Russian) to be immunized. French called it "blackmail".

5/ Now, for the Russians, there's a non-proliferation interest in seeing the JCPOA revived. But there's a countering interest in freeing a rival oil exporter and taking one item off the West's immediate to-do list. 

Seems clear the balance has tipped toward the latter.

6/ So, you ask, can't the Russians just be bypassed? Why the complication? Well, two things:

A. Russia is a member of the JCPOA's Joint Commission, which makes decisions by consensus. If they're opposed to the adoption of a re-entry framework, could try to block it.

7/ B. The Russians have a practical role as well, in terms of civil cooperation projects as well as potentially receiving Iran's enriched uranium stockpile beyond JCPOA's 300kg cap. Similar to what was done in 2015 👇

nyti.ms/3I3Rj0F

8/ At this stage, neither adamancy of Russian demands nor exact scope seems clear. If it necessitates workarounds on nuke side, there might be some options.

But now we know exactly why the negotiating mantra all along has been: 

Nothing is agreed till everything is agreed.

9/9 Not able to defy one of the sole countries it can rely on, Iran has gone as far as blaming the US for the current deadlock. Let’s hope that behind the scenes they and others are trying to find solutions to avoid yet another crisis in these troubled times.