Quick 🧵 on Russia's sabotage of the #IranTalks in Vienna.
Though the JCPOA has not been killed by the Russian demands, Moscow does have the ability to harm the US by delaying the agreement at a crucial point of US vulnerability to high oil prices. >>
Though the JCPOA has not been killed by the Russian demands, Moscow does have the ability to harm the US by delaying the agreement at a crucial point of US vulnerability to high oil prices. >>
2. Russia can possibly also pull the plug on the agreement as a whole by triggering snap-back sanctions in the UN Security Council or preventing the Joint Commission to adopt the decision to bring the US back into the deal. >>
3. In retrospect, the parties were clearly mistaken in thinking that Russia would continue to compartmentalize the JCPOA talks from its tensions with the West. It remains unclear however if the Russian objective is to delay the deal or to scuttle the deal.
>>
>>
4. Though Tehran has been tempered in its statements, it must clearly be angered. But Iran is stuck between two bad choices: Accepting the potential collapse of the JCPOA and continued sanctions, or seeking a potential agreement with the US outside of the JCPOA...>>
5. ...which could dangerously increase tensions between Tehran and Moscow while making Iran dependent on the US at a time when GOP officials have made it clear they will kill the JCPOA if they take the White House in 2024. >>
6. Hopefully, JCPOA can still be salvaged. But if it dies, it further shows the folly of Biden not going back to the deal via Executive Order on day one. No one could have predicted the Russian war, but many predicted that it would be unpredictably messy to negotiate a return.//
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
